Premier League
Aston Villa - Chelsea
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
预期进球
1.4
3.1
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Aston Villa
Chelsea
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
30%
平局
26%
客胜
44%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
双重机会
主胜或平局
56%
客胜或平局
70%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
62%
否
38%
关键因素
- Chelsea's strong away attack (1.73 goals per game) meets Aston Villa's very solid home defense (0.73 goals conceded per game)
- The recent form trend favors Chelsea, as Aston Villa's goal output has recently declined (0.8 goals per game) while Chelsea scores consistently
- The mathematical model slightly favors Chelsea with a 44% win probability and expects more goals from the visitors (1.70)
风险因素
- Chelsea has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- The head-to-head record over the last five games is completely balanced with two wins each and one draw
- Despite their recent poor form, Aston Villa's impressive defensive record at home (0.73 goals conceded per game) is a key factor
概述
Aston Villa (4th place, 51 points) host Chelsea (6th place, 45 points) at Villa Park
A Premier League clash on March 4, 2026, 8:30 PM
Aston Villa aims to solidify a top-4 spot, while Chelsea looks to close the gap to the European places
近期状态
Aston Villa's form: D W L D L
In the last 5 games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Chelsea's form: W D W D L
Chelsea secured 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
Both teams lost their most recent game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Chelsea has the more dangerous attack, averaging 1.75 goals per game, compared to Aston Villa's 1.36
Defensively, Aston Villa is slightly more stable, conceding an average of 1.07 goals per game (Chelsea 1.18)
Aston Villa's defense is particularly strong at their home ground, Villa Park, allowing only 0.73 goals per game
Chelsea, on the other hand, is very dangerous on the road, scoring an average of 1.73 goals
历史交锋
The record of the last 5 head-to-head encounters is completely balanced
Both teams have won 2 games each, with one match ending in a draw
The goal difference is slightly in favor of Chelsea at 10:7
The last meeting was won by Aston Villa 2:1
关键球员
Morgan Rogers is a key factor in Aston Villa's attack with 8 goals and 5 assists
Ollie Watkins has also scored 8 goals this season
For Chelsea, João Pedro is the top scorer with 11 goals and 4 assists
Cole Palmer is in strong form, contributing 8 goals and 1 assist
门将
Aston Villa's Emiliano Martínez has kept 8 clean sheets this season
The Chelsea team has managed a total of 9 clean sheets this season
影响因素
Aston Villa's home advantage is evident in their very strong defense, conceding only 0.73 goals per game at Villa Park
In the last five home games, there has been an average of 2.6 goals per match