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Premier League

Chelsea - Newcastle United

03/14/2026, 05:30 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Chelsea
1.9
Total xG
3.3
Newcastle United
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
CHENU

Chelsea

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.38倍)
+0.44
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.07
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
+0.06
Pedro Neto未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻)

Newcastle United

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.49倍)
+0.42
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第5位, 相差7位)
-0.11
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
Joelinton替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Sandro Tonali未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
Dan Burn替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体2球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

25%

客胜

28%

进球数

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

双重机会

主胜或平局

72%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

75%

双方进球

66%

34%

关键因素
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates Chelsea as slight favorites with a 47% win probability and 1.90 expected goals
  • Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Chelsea is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) while Newcastle concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away game
  • High-scoring match expected: The model predicts a high probability for Over 2.5 goals (65%) and Both Teams To Score (66%)
风险因素
  • Short rest for Chelsea: Chelsea had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Key player absences for Newcastle: B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (9 goals, 4 assists) and F. Schär (defender) are missing due to injuries
  • Away defensive weakness: Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away game
概述

Chelsea (5th place, 48 points) host Newcastle United (12th place, 39 points) at Stamford Bridge. The Premier League clash takes place on March 14, 2026, 6:30 PM. Chelsea aims to close the gap to the top spots, while Newcastle seeks to improve its mid-table position.

近期状态

Chelsea's form across all competitions shows DLWWL, which corresponds to two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. Their last encounter ended in a loss (2-5 against Paris Saint Germain). Newcastle United has a form of WLWLD, also two wins, one draw, and two losses. Newcastle's last match ended in a 1-1 draw against FC Barcelona.

统计数据

Chelsea's offense averages 1.83 goals per game, while their defense concedes 1.17 goals per game. They kept 9 clean sheets, had both teams score in 20 games, and saw over 2.5 goals in 19 matches. In home games, Chelsea averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded. Newcastle United averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per season. Away from home, Newcastle scores an average of 1.40 goals per game, but concedes 1.90 goals and kept four clean sheets. At Stamford Bridge, the last five matches averaged 2.8 total goals, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 games.

历史交锋

In the five previous head-to-head matches, the record between Chelsea and Newcastle United is even. Both teams have secured two wins each, while one game ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 7:9 in favour of Newcastle. The last encounter on December 20, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.

关键球员

For Chelsea, Cole Palmer with 9 goals and 1 assist, Enzo Fernández with 8 goals and 3 assists, and João Pedro with 14 goals and 5 assists are important players. For Newcastle United, Malick Thiaw with 4 goals, Anthony Gordon with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Lewis Hall with 1 goal and 1 assist are among the standout performers.

门将

Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has recorded nine clean sheets this season. Newcastle United's goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, has kept seven clean sheets in the current season.

影响因素

The home venue, Stamford Bridge, has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 2 out of 5 games. Chelsea averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded at home, emphasizing their home advantage. Newcastle United, however, concedes an average of 1.90 goals away from home.

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