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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Toluca

07/19/2026, 01:07 AM

0 : 2
预期进球
Guadalajara
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Toluca
0.8
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
GUATOL

Guadalajara

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.44
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.22
状态下滑 (1.5 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
-0.13
Efraín Álvarez未进大名单 (3球, 8助攻)
Santiago Sandoval未进大名单 (6球, 1助攻)
Ricardo Marín替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
22%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)

Toluca

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍)
-1.34
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.64
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (1.6 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.15
Marcel Ruiz未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Diego Barbosa替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
Pável Pérez替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.6球)
+1.10
+1.10
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

50%

平局

30%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

50%

非平局

70%

双方进球

45%

55%

关键因素
  • Home advantage on artificial turf: Guadalajara is unbeaten on this surface with a record of 7W-3D-0L
  • Defensive strength at Estadio AKRON: The hosts concede an average of just 0.79 goals per home match
  • Control of play: Both teams have recently been highly dominant, averaging over 58% possession
风险因素
  • Historical struggle: Guadalajara has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toluca
  • Roster absences for the hosts: Key players Efraín Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ricardo Marín are not in the starting lineup
  • Toluca's away attack: The visitors score an impressive average of 1.88 goals per away match
概述

Guadalajara hosts Toluca at the Estadio AKRON

Liga MX match on July 19, 2026, 2:07 AM

Both teams enter the matchday with 0 points

The mathematical model estimates a 50% chance of a home victory

近期状态

Guadalajara shows a form of DLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently suffered a 1-2 defeat against Cruz Azul

Toluca travels with a form of LLWLL

The visitors lost their last match 0-2 against Pachuca

统计数据

Guadalajara scored an average of 1.75 goals per game this season

Their home defense is strong, conceding only 0.79 goals per match

Toluca averaged 1.86 goals scored per game

The visitors conceded an average of 1.31 goals in their away matches

历史交锋

Guadalajara has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches

Toluca dominates the historical record with 3 wins and 1 draw

The total goal difference is 1-7 in favor of Toluca

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for Toluca on February 28, 2026

关键球员

Roberto Alvarado stands out with an average rating of 7.26 and 3 recent assists

Omar Nicolás Govea García recorded 1 goal and 1 assist recently

Alexis Vega leads the visitors with a rating of 7.52 and 12 assists this season

门将

Raúl Rangel kept 14 clean sheets this season

Luis García recorded 13 clean sheets for Toluca

影响因素

The match is played on artificial turf

Guadalajara is strong on artificial turf with a record of 7W-3D-0L

The historical average at Estadio AKRON stands at 1.6 goals per game

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