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Liga MX

Necaxa - Monterrey

07/26/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Monterrey
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
NECMON

Necaxa

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.51
排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第5位, 相差8位)
-0.13
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.11
Tomás Badaloni未进大名单 (8球, 2助攻)
Alexis Peña替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
Cristian Calderón未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
20%进球产出缺失 (仅78%可用)

Monterrey

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.6倍)
-0.86
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.14
防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.08
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第13位, 相差8位)
+0.04
Fidel Ambríz替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅97%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.2球 vs 总体1.7球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

49%

平局

29%

客胜

22%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

78%

客胜或平局

51%

非平局

71%

双方进球

49%

51%

关键因素
  • H2H dominance: Monterrey won all last 4 meetings against Necaxa without conceding a single goal
  • Offensive volume: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to only 2.2 for Necaxa
  • Missing key players: Necaxa is without Tomás Badaloni, Alexis Peña, and Cristian Calderón, leaving only 79% of active goals available
风险因素
  • Away defense vulnerability: Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
  • Low scoring threat: Necaxa averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Goalkeeping absence: Monterrey's starting goalkeeper E. Andrada is suspended due to a red card
概述

Necaxa hosts Monterrey at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on July 26, 2026, at 11:00 PM

Both teams started their season with a victory

Monterrey sits in 7th place, with Necaxa right behind in 8th place

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 49%

近期状态

Necaxa shows form LDDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Monterrey arrives with form DLWLW, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Both teams recorded a victory in their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Necaxa averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded this season

At home, Necaxa is defensively more stable, conceding an average of 1.00 goals per match

Monterrey averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Monterrey's defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.06 goals

历史交锋

Monterrey historically dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The goal difference stands at 7-0 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on January 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Monterrey

Necaxa failed to score a single goal in any of these encounters

关键球员

Javier Ruiz scored 5 goals with a 7.09 rating this season

Julián Carranza recorded 3 goals in 6 season appearances

Ricardo Monreal contributed 4 season goals and 2 assists

Lucas Ocampos impresses with 7 goals and 6 assists this season

Óliver Torres stands out with 8 assists and an average rating of 7.14

Jesús Corona recorded 4 goals and 4 assists this season

门将

Necaxa goalkeeper Luis Jiménez has 0 appearances this season

Luis Cárdenas guards Monterrey's goal with 21 season appearances and a 6.99 rating

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 matches played at this stadium

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