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Liga MX

Toluca - Pumas UNAM

07/22/2026, 03:05 AM

1 : 2
预期进球
Toluca
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Pumas UNAM
0.8
最可能的比分

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
TOLPU

Toluca

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.55倍)
+0.53
防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.20
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.09
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第10位, 相差9位)
+0.08
Marcel Ruiz未进大名单 (3球, 4助攻)
Franco Romero替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
Pável Pérez未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
主场表现强势 (场均2.7球 vs 总体2.1球)

Pumas UNAM

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.45倍)
-1.39
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球)
-0.38
状态下滑 (0.5 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.35
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第1位, 相差9位)
-0.08
Jordán Carrillo未进大名单 (6球, 3助攻)
Adalberto Carrasquilla未进大名单 (2球, 6助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.7球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.72
+0.72
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

61%

平局

25%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

39%

非平局

75%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Strong home record: Toluca concede an average of just 0.85 goals per game at home
  • Tactical dominance: Toluca averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Pumas UNAM's low average of 1.4
  • Offensive slump for the visitors: Pumas UNAM's recent goal production has slowed to 0.5 compared to their season average of 1.7
风险因素
  • Short recovery time: Toluca had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Harmless away attack: Pumas UNAM averaged just 1.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Key absences: Jordán Carrillo and Adalberto Carrasquilla are unavailable for Pumas UNAM
概述

Toluca host Pumas UNAM at the Estadio Nemesio Díez

Liga MX match on July 22, 2026, 5:05 AM

Toluca currently sit in 3rd place with 3 points

The visitors from Pumas UNAM are in 18th place with 0 points

A clash between a strong starter and a team under early pressure

近期状态

Toluca hold a form of LWLLW with a win in their last match

The home side recorded 2 wins and 3 losses recently

Pumas UNAM travel with a form of LWDLL and a loss in their last match

The visitors registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent run

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Toluca average 1.86 goals scored and 1.02 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the team is stronger defensively with 1.85 scored and 0.85 conceded

Pumas UNAM average 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded overall

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 1.50 goals

历史交锋

In 4 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1 and 3 ended in a draw

Pumas UNAM did not win any of these direct encounters

The last duel ended in a 3-2 victory for Toluca on March 4, 2026

A total of 6 goals were scored by Toluca and 5 by Pumas UNAM in these matches

关键球员

Alexis Vega shines for Toluca with 4 goals and 12 assists, averaging a 7.52 rating

Jesús Angulo contributed 7 goals and 5 assists in midfield for the hosts

Pedro Vite acts in midfield for the visitors with 3 goals and a season rating of 6.92

门将

Hugo González is in goal for Toluca with an average rating of 6.81

Keylor Navas guards the net for Pumas UNAM with a season average rating of 7.04

Toluca have kept 13 clean sheets this season compared to 12 for Pumas UNAM

影响因素

Toluca's home advantage is backed by conceding just 0.85 goals per game at Estadio Nemesio Díez

Matches on this grass pitch average 3.2 total goals

A high rate of 80% of matches at this venue recently saw both teams score

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