🇲🇽

Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Puebla

07/22/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
Cruz Azul
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Puebla
0.7
最可能的比分

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
CAPUE

Cruz Azul

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.14
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第18位, 相差15位)
+0.13
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
Agustín Palavecino替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
Osinachi Ebere替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Omar Campos替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Willer Ditta替补席 (0球, 2助攻)

Puebla

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.42倍)
-1.47
防守不足 (场均失2.2球 vs 联赛平均1.9球)
+0.30
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.16
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
-0.16
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第3位, 相差15位)
-0.12
15%进球产出缺失 (仅92%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.72
+0.72
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

24%

客胜

12%

进球数

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

88%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

76%

双方进球

43%

57%

关键因素
  • Attacking threat meets weak defense: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.4 shots on target per match, while Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game
  • Form trend: Cruz Azul remains unbeaten in 5 matches (DWDWW) while Puebla suffered four consecutive defeats prior to their last win
  • Strong favorite: The mathematical prediction model assigns a 63% probability of a home victory for Cruz Azul
风险因素
  • Key absences for Cruz Azul: Agustín Palavecino, Osinachi Ebere, Omar Campos, and Willer Ditta are not in the lineup
  • Away defensive struggles: Puebla concedes a high average of 2.57 goals per game on the road
  • Offensive limitations: Puebla recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match
概述

Cruz Azul (5th place, 3 points) host Puebla (8th place, 3 points)

Liga MX match on July 22, 2026, 3:00 AM at Estadio La Corregidora

Both teams seek to continue their successful start to the campaign

近期状态

Cruz Azul shows steady form with a sequence of DWDWW

The home side secured 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Puebla has an unstable form of LLLLW

The visitors collected 1 win and 4 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Cruz Azul scores 1.77 goals and concedes 1.09 goals on average this season

At home, Cruz Azul averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded

Puebla averages 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded per match

Puebla concedes a high average of 2.57 goals per away game

历史交锋

There have been 4 direct encounters in total

Cruz Azul remains undefeated with 3 wins and 1 draw

The cumulative score stands at 7:2 in favor of Cruz Azul

The last match on January 18, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Cruz Azul

关键球员

Gabriel Fernández scored 14 goals and provided 7 assists in 36 matches

José Paradela added 10 goals and 10 assists in 44 appearances

Carlos Rodríguez recorded 8 goals and 6 assists in 44 matches

Emiliano Gómez has 8 goals and 5 assists in 33 seasonal games

Kevin Velasco provided 3 assists in 14 appearances

Juan Pablo Vargas scored 1 goal in 14 matches as a defender

门将

Kevin Mier kept 12 clean sheets this season with 8 clean sheets at home

Daniel Gutiérrez recorded 6 clean sheets so far with 3 clean sheets away

影响因素

The match takes place on grass at Estadio La Corregidora

Historical games at this venue average 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches played here

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。