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Liga MX

Tijuana - León

07/25/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Tijuana
1.5
Total xG
2.4
León
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
TIJLEÓ

Tijuana

状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.17
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第17位, 相差10位)
+0.07
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.04
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.02
Kevin Castañeda未进大名单 (13球, 7助攻)
Diego Abreu替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
39%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用)

León

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍)
-1.20
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.20
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.20
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第7位, 相差10位)
-0.10
Díber Cambindo未进大名单 (8球, 2助攻)
Iván Moreno替补席 (1球, 5助攻)
Fernando Beltrán替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅68%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.2球)
+0.68
+0.68
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

52%

平局

29%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

48%

非平局

71%

双方进球

47%

53%

关键因素
  • Tijuana's advantage on artificial turf with 3 wins and 6 draws compared to León's 2 losses and 0:10 goals
  • Disastrous away defense for León conceding an average of 4.11 goals per match
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 52%
风险因素
  • Only 68% of home goal threat available as Kevin Castañeda and Diego Abreu are missing
  • Only 69% of León's goal threat available as Díber Cambindo, Iván Moreno and Fernando Beltrán are missing
  • Tijuana averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
概述

Tijuana host León at the Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on July 25, 2026, 3:00 AM

Tijuana occupies 3rd place with 3 points

León is currently in 13th place after a defeat

近期状态

Tijuana is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with a form of WDWDW

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

León shows a form of WWLLL with 3 consecutive defeats

统计数据

Tijuana averages 1.46 goals scored per game this season

Tijuana has a solid home defense conceding only 0.57 goals on average

León concedes an average of 4.11 goals in away matches

历史交锋

Tijuana has a clear advantage with 3 wins from 4 matches

The last meeting ended with a 3:0 victory for Tijuana on March 15, 2026

Tijuana scored 11 goals and conceded 3 in these direct duels

关键球员

Mourad El Ghezouani has already scored 5 goals this season

Ramiro Árciga contributed 3 goals and 8 assists in 36 games

Ismael Díaz is León's top scorer with 10 goals and 6 assists

门将

Antonio Rodríguez achieved 13 clean sheets in 37 appearances

Óscar García recorded 6 clean sheets in 28 games for León

影响因素

Tijuana is solid on artificial turf with 3 wins and 6 draws

León lost both of their turf matches by a combined score of 0:10

The artificial turf surface remains a key home advantage

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