Liga MX
Toluca - Necaxa
08/03/2026, 01:05 AM
预期进球
2.4
3.3
0.8
2:0
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%1:1
9%3:1
8%xG 分解
Toluca
Necaxa
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
72%
平局
18%
客胜
10%
进球数
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
双重机会
主胜或平局
90%
客胜或平局
28%
非平局
82%
双方进球
是
52%
否
48%
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Toluca's strong home offense (avg. 1.85 goals) faces a highly vulnerable Necaxa defense conceding 2.35 goals per away match
- Tactical dominance: Toluca controlled possession in recent matches (averaging 61%) and registered an average of 5.4 shots on target per game
- Historical dominance: Toluca has won all four recent head-to-head matches, boasting a clear 14-4 goal difference
风险因素
- Declining form: Toluca's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
- Key midfield absence: Toluca has to cope without the injured key player M. Ruiz Suárez
- Away vulnerability: Necaxa concedes a worrying average of 2.35 goals per away match
概述
Toluca (13th place, 3 points) hosts Necaxa (4th place, 6 points) at the Estadio Nemesio Díez
Liga MX match on August 3, 2026, 3:05 AM
Toluca looks to bounce back from a mixed start while Necaxa aims to keep their perfect record
近期状态
Toluca with mixed form of WLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Last match ended in a 1-2 home defeat against Pumas UNAM
Necaxa in good form with DDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The visitors are on a two-match winning streak, recently beating Monterrey 2-1
统计数据
Toluca is strong offensively, averaging 1.86 goals scored per game this season
Their defense remains solid with 1.02 goals conceded per match
Necaxa shows significant weaknesses on the road, conceding an average of 2.35 goals per away game
The visitors have conceded 1.68 goals per game overall this season
历史交锋
Toluca dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins from 4 matches
The goal difference stands at a dominant 14-4 in favor of Toluca
The last meeting ended in a clear 3-0 away win for Toluca on February 22, 2026
Necaxa failed to secure a single point in the last four encounters
关键球员
Alexis Vega shines as top scorer with 4 goals and 12 assists
Jesús Angulo contributes 7 goals and 5 assists from midfield
Jorge Díaz is in rising form, scoring 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
Julián Carranza is in excellent shape, scoring 3 goals in recent matches
Javier Ruiz is a dangerous goalscoring midfielder with 5 goals this season
Danny Leyva pulls the strings in midfield and has already provided 3 assists this campaign
门将
Luis García has played 20 matches this season, recording 5 clean sheets at home
Luis Jiménez has made only one appearance this campaign, earning a rating of 6.54
影响因素
Estadio Nemesio Díez averages a high-scoring 3.4 goals per match
Toluca's home record highlights their strength at home, averaging 1.85 goals scored
The historical BTTS rate at the stadium is a very high 80%