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Liga MX

Tijuana - Cruz Azul

08/17/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
Tijuana
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Cruz Azul
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
TIJCA

Tijuana

状态上升 (2.3 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.20
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.08
16%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)

Cruz Azul

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.11
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
Carlos Rotondi未进大名单 (6球, 7助攻)
Agustín Palavecino替补席 (6球, 3助攻)
Willer Ditta替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Gonzalo Piovi替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
10%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.34
+0.34
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

31%

平局

30%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

69%

非平局

70%

双方进球

是

54%

否

46%

关键因素
  • Tijuana currently scores more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.7), while Cruz Azul also averages 2.3 goals recently
  • Tactical contrast: Cruz Azul recently dominated possession (60%), while Tijuana averaged a counter-attacking style (42% possession)
  • Tight mathematical model: The prediction model calculates a 39% win probability for Cruz Azul and 31% for Tijuana
风险因素
  • Cruz Azul will miss key players Carlos Rotondi (6 goals, 7 assists) and Agustin Palavecino (6 goals, 3 assists)
  • Cruz Azul concedes more goals away from home on average (1.30) than their overall average (1.09)
概述

Tijuana (5th place, 7 points) host Cruz Azul (8th place, 6 points) at Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on August 17, 2026, 5:00 AM

A close mid-table clash is expected

近期状态

Tijuana is unbeaten in 5 matches with form WDWWD

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

Cruz Azul holds a form of DWWWL, suffering a loss in their last match

统计数据

Tijuana scores an average of 1.46 goals and concedes 1.24 goals this season

Strong home defense with only 0.57 goals conceded per game on average

Cruz Azul averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded per match

历史交锋

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, both teams got 2 wins and 1 draw

The goal difference in these meetings is 8:7 in favor of Tijuana

The last match ended in a 1:1 draw on April 18, 2026

关键球员

Gilberto Mora scored 6 goals this season with an average rating of 6.97

José Paradela has 10 goals and 10 assists this season

Carlos Rodríguez contributed 8 goals and 6 assists so far

门将

Antonio Rodríguez made 37 appearances for Tijuana with an average rating of 7.2

Kevin Mier started 26 matches for Cruz Azul with a rating average of 6.76

Tijuana recorded 13 clean sheets, while Cruz Azul kept 12 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on artificial turf

Tijuana's record on artificial turf stands at 4 wins, 5 draws, and 1 loss with a 12:7 goal difference

Cruz Azul's record on this surface shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss

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