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Liga MX

Atlante - Toluca

08/15/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 0
预期进球
Atlante
1.0
Total xG
2.8
Toluca
1.8
最可能的比分

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
xG 分解
ATLTOL

Atlante

防守不足 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.30
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
-0.14

Toluca

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (1.2 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.27
Alexis Vega替补席 (4球, 12助攻)
Santiago Simón未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅55%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.39
+0.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

20%

平局

26%

客胜

54%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

46%

客胜或平局

80%

非平局

74%

双方进球

是

55%

否

45%

关键因素
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 54% win probability for the favored 3rd-placed Toluca
  • Tactical dominance: Toluca controlled recent matches with an average of 67% possession and averaged 5.4 shots on target
  • Defensive contrast: Toluca kept 13 clean sheets this season, whereas Atlante concede 1.67 goals on average and have kept zero clean sheets
风险因素
  • Weakened away attack: Alexis Vega and Santiago Simón are missing from the squad, leaving Toluca with only 55% of their usual goal threat
  • Limited data availability for home team player statistics and head-to-head history
概述

Atlante host Toluca at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on August 15, 2026, 11:00 PM

10th-placed Atlante with 4 points face 3rd-placed Toluca with 6 points

Crucial points are at stake for both teams to improve their league standings

近期状态

Atlante's recent form is LDW, winning their last match

Toluca's recent form is LLWLW, also coming off a victory

Atlante recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their matches

Toluca recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Atlante score an average of 1.67 goals and concede 1.67 goals per game

Both teams scored in all 3 of Atlante's league matches this season

Toluca average 1.88 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded in away games

The away side kept 13 clean sheets throughout the season

关键球员

Jhojan Julio recorded 1 goal and 2 assists at Estadio Banorte

Luis Fernando Puente Prado scored 1 goal at the venue with an average rating of 7.24

Jesús Angulo scored 7 goals and provided 5 assists in 37 appearances for Toluca

门将

Óscar Jiménez is in goal for Atlante, averaging a rating of 7.94 at this venue

Luis García is Toluca's goalkeeper with 20 appearances and a season rating of 6.96

Atlante have kept 0 clean sheets this season, compared to Toluca's 13 clean sheets

影响因素

Estadio Banorte averages 3.4 total goals per game

The stadium features a 60% rate for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals

The match will be played on a grass surface

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