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Liga MX

Querétaro - Toluca

08/22/2026, 03:10 AM

1 : 2
预期进球
Querétaro
1.0
Total xG
2.4
Toluca
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

0:1

11%

0:0

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%
xG 分解
QUETOL

Querétaro

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.78倍)
-0.45
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
+0.16
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第1位, 相差11位)
-0.12
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
+0.06
Mateo Coronel替补席 (5球, 0助攻)
18%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用)

Toluca

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (1.5 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.18
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第12位, 相差11位)
+0.07
Jorge Díaz替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Santiago Simón未进大名单 (0球, 3助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2.1球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.36
+0.36
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

25%

平局

30%

客胜

45%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

双重机会

主胜或平局

55%

客胜或平局

75%

非平局

70%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Form trend: Querétaro shows a positive trend, scoring more recently (1.8 goals) than their season average of 1.2
  • Tactical contrast: Querétaro has played counter-oriented with an average of 42% possession in recent matches, while Toluca dominated with an average of 64% possession
  • Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 45% probability for an away win, with expected goals of 1.42 for Toluca
风险因素
  • Struggling attack: Toluca's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.5 goals compared to their season average of 2.1
  • Missing goal threat: Querétaro has to cope without the unlisted Mateo Coronel (5 goals)
  • Limited data on duel statistics
概述

Querétaro hosts Toluca at Estadio La Corregidora

Liga MX match on August 22, 2026, 3:10 AM

Toluca sits 5th with 7 points, while Querétaro is right behind in 8th place with 7 points

A tight mid-table clash with both teams aiming to climb

近期状态

Querétaro shows solid form (WLWWD, W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Pumas UNAM

Toluca approaches the match with a LWLWD form

The visitors recently recorded a scoreless draw away at Atlante

统计数据

Querétaro averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they concede only 0.91 goals per match on average

Toluca shines offensively with 1.86 goals scored per game this season

On the road, the visitors average 1.88 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded

历史交锋

Toluca dominates the historical matchup with 3 wins in 4 meetings

Querétaro has managed only 1 victory so far

The goal difference stands at 10-1 in favor of Toluca

However, the last encounter ended in a 1-0 home victory for Querétaro

关键球员

Forward Alí Ávila is the main threat for Querétaro with 11 goals this season

Defender Santiago Homenchenko has contributed 6 goals with a season rating of 7.09

Carlo Adriano García Prades anchors the midfield with an average rating of 6.70

Not in the home lineup: Mateo Coronel (5 goals)

Alexis Vega orchestrates Toluca's attack with 4 goals and 12 assists

Helinho is highly dangerous with 9 goals and 6 assists this season

Defender Federico Pereira impresses with a strong average rating of 6.98

Not in the away lineup: Jorge Díaz (2 goals, 3 assists) and Santiago Simón (3 assists)

门将

Guillermo Allison starts in goal for the hosts, holding a solid season average rating of 6.95

Querétaro has recorded 8 clean sheets overall this season

Hugo González guards the goal for Toluca with a season rating of 6.81

The visitors have registered 13 clean sheets in this campaign

影响因素

The match takes place at Estadio La Corregidora on a natural grass pitch

Stadium history shows a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches here, while 60% featured over 2.5 goals

Home advantage is supported by a stable defense, conceding only 0.91 goals per home game

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