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Necaxa – Cruz Azul1 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Necaxa
1.45
总 xG
2.86
Cruz Azul
1.41
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Necaxa | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.36 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | +0.32 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | +0.23 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | −0.12 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | +0.01 | |
| Luka Romero替补席 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| 13%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均2球 vs 总体1.4球) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.9球) |
关键因素
- Tactical dominance: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target with 58.6% possession in recent matches
- H2H history: Cruz Azul won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters against Necaxa, with a goal difference of 11-3
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical model predicts a close game with 1.45 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.41 for Cruz Azul
风险
- Squad impact: Luka Romero is missing from the visitors' squad, leaving only 85% of regular goal threat available
- Negative trend: Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches in a row
- Away vulnerability: Cruz Azul conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away game this season
全部概率
赛果
Necaxa37%
平局28%
Cruz Azul35%
进球
大于 1.579%
小于 1.521%
大于 2.555%
小于 2.545%
大于 3.532%
小于 3.568%
双重机会
Necaxa或平局65%
Cruz Azul或平局63%
非平局72%
双方均进球
是59%
否41%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Necaxa 3-5-2 · Cruz Azul 5-4-1
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 4 A. Peña López
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 6 D. Leyva
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 9 J. Carranza
- 10 J. Ruiz
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 55 Rogelio González
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 20 J. Paradela
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 7 N. Ibáñez
替补
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 49 J. Díaz González
- 27 B. Gamboa Galarza
- 70 I. Alberto Silva Díaz
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