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Liga MX

Necaxa - Cruz Azul

08/29/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 3
预期进球
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Cruz Azul
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
NECCA

Necaxa

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.32
防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.23
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.01
主场表现强势 (场均2球 vs 总体1.4球)

Cruz Azul

小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.36
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.12
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.08
Luka Romero替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
13%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.9球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.41
+0.41
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

37%

平局

28%

客胜

35%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

65%

客胜或平局

63%

非平局

72%

双方进球

59%

41%

关键因素
  • Tactical dominance: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target with 58.6% possession in recent matches
  • H2H history: Cruz Azul won 3 of the last 4 direct encounters against Necaxa, with a goal difference of 11-3
  • Balanced prediction: The mathematical model predicts a close game with 1.45 expected goals for Necaxa and 1.41 for Cruz Azul
风险因素
  • Squad impact: Luka Romero is missing from the visitors' squad, leaving only 85% of regular goal threat available
  • Negative trend: Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches in a row
  • Away vulnerability: Cruz Azul conceded an average of 1.30 goals per away game this season
概述

Necaxa host Cruz Azul at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on August 29, 2026, 3:00 AM

Necaxa is in 11th place with 7 points, while Cruz Azul sits in 12th place with 6 points

Both teams are positioned closely in the mid-table

近期状态

Necaxa form: WWLLD - 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses

Cruz Azul form: WWLLL - 2 wins, 3 consecutive losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Necaxa recently secured a 1-1 draw against Pumas UNAM

Cruz Azul lost their last three league matches, most recently 0-2 against Atlas

统计数据

Necaxa scores an average of 1.26 goals per game and concedes 1.68

Cruz Azul has a stronger offense with 1.77 goals per game and concedes an average of only 1.09

In home matches, Necaxa scored 21 goals in 17 games

Cruz Azul scored an average of 1.80 goals per away game this season

历史交锋

Cruz Azul dominates the historical matchups with 3 wins from 4 games

No wins for Necaxa, with 1 draw between them

The goal difference stands at 11-3 in favor of Cruz Azul

The last direct meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Cruz Azul on April 27, 2026

关键球员

Julián Carranza is the top attacker with 4 goals in 4 appearances and a 7.37 rating

Danny Leyva contributes a strong average rating of 7.14 in midfield

Matías Espíndola scored 1 goal in 3 appearances for the team

Jeremy Márquez shines with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Agustín Palavecino achieves an average rating of 7.12 in midfield

José Paradela provided 1 assist in 5 games

门将

Luis Jiménez appeared 5 times this season, securing 3 home clean sheets

Kevin Mier guarded the goal in 4 matches, recording 4 away clean sheets

The goalkeeper duel statistically suggests solid defensive potential

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Necaxa conceded an average of 1.00 goals per home game across 17 matches

The venue history shows an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

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