比赛报告 →
Toluca – Juárez4 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Toluca
1.67
总 xG
2.59
Juárez
0.93
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Toluca | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.51倍) | −0.76 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.58 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.47 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.8球) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球) | −0.25 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.25 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.21 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.15 | |
| 排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第5位, 相差13位) | −0.14 | |
| 排名优势 (第5位 vs 第18位, 相差13位) | +0.10 | |
| 客场表现不佳 (场均0.3球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Huge form gap: Toluca sits in 5th place with 10 points, while Juárez is at the bottom of the table with zero points and five consecutive losses
- Tactical dominance: Toluca recently averaged 61% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game, whereas Juárez averaged only 1.6 shots on target
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a probability of 53%
风险
- Away weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Lack of offensive threat: Juárez recently averaged only 1.6 shots on target per match
- Limited data availability regarding injured players and squad impact
全部概率
赛果
Toluca53%
平局27%
Juárez19%
进球
大于 1.575%
小于 1.525%
大于 2.548%
小于 2.552%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Toluca或平局81%
Juárez或平局47%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是50%
否50%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
4:0
最终比分
首发阵容
Toluca 4-3-1-2 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 184 Sebastián Aceves
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 5 F. Romero
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 23 O. Virgen
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
替补
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 8 N. Castro
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 198 J. Estrada
- 192 L. Navarrete Torres
- 12 Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 14 E. López Castro
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
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