Liga MX
Toluca - Juárez
08/31/2026, 12:00 AM
预期进球
1.7
2.6
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%1:2
5%xG 分解
Toluca
Juárez
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
53%
平局
27%
客胜
19%
进球数
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
81%
客胜或平局
47%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
50%
否
50%
关键因素
- Huge form gap: Toluca sits in 5th place with 10 points, while Juárez is at the bottom of the table with zero points and five consecutive losses
- Tactical dominance: Toluca recently averaged 61% possession and 5.0 shots on target per game, whereas Juárez averaged only 1.6 shots on target
- Mathematical prediction: The calculation model forecasts a home win with a probability of 53%
风险因素
- Away weakness: Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
- Lack of offensive threat: Juárez recently averaged only 1.6 shots on target per match
- Limited data availability regarding injured players and squad impact
概述
Toluca (5th place, 10 points) hosts Juárez (18th place, 0 points) at Estadio Nemesio Díez
Liga MX match on August 31, 2026, 2:00 AM
The hosts enter as clear favorites against the bottom-placed team
近期状态
Toluca shows a stable trend with the form WLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The hosts recently recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Juárez is in a deep crisis with the form LLLLL
The away side has 0 wins and 5 consecutive losses
统计数据
Toluca scores an average of 1.86 goals per game this season while conceding 1.02
In home games, Toluca concedes only 0.85 goals on average
Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
The venue statistics show an average of 3.8 goals per match
历史交锋
Toluca dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins out of 5 matches
Juárez has not won any of these meetings with only 1 draw recorded
The goal difference stands at a clear 11:2 in favor of Toluca
The last direct encounter on March 8, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Toluca
关键球员
Helinho impresses with an average rating of 7.35, one goal, and two assists
Alexis Vega holds a rating of 7.37 with one goal scored this season
Federico Pereira stabilizes the defense with a strong rating of 7.64
José Luis Rodríguez scored one goal, provided two assists, and has a rating of 6.94
Óscar Estupiñán is the top scorer with two goals and a rating of 6.65
Sebastián Jurado has an average goalkeeper rating of 6.82 this season
门将
Hugo González plays in goal for Toluca and holds an average rating of 6.9
Toluca has secured 13 clean sheets overall this season
Sebastián Jurado guards the goal for Juárez with a rating of 6.82
Juárez has recorded only 3 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The grass surface at Estadio Nemesio Díez provides excellent playing conditions
Toluca's home strength is highlighted by an average of 1.85 goals scored and only 0.85 conceded at home
Juárez shows significant difficulties away from home, conceding an average of 2.25 goals
Venue statistics point towards high-scoring games with an average of 3.8 goals per match