比赛报告 →
Tijuana – Pumas UNAM2 : 0
模型为何这样判断
Tijuana
1.48
总 xG
2.57
Pumas UNAM
1.09
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Tijuana | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.42倍) | −1.05 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.75 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | −0.10 | |
| 小样本 (3场) - 均值回归 | −0.05 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | −0.04 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.02 | |
| Juninho替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| 42%进球产出缺失 (仅86%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.7球) |
关键因素
- Strong home record: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals per game on average in their own stadium
- Mathematical advantage: The prediction model forecasts a home win with a probability of 45%
- Artificial turf experience: Tijuana holds a solid home record of 5 wins in 10 matches on synthetic grass
风险
- Missing key player: Juninho (3 goals) is not in the lineup for Pumas UNAM
- Declining defense: Tijuana's average goals conceded rose recently from 1.43 to 1.75 in their last matches
- Low attacking precision: Both teams averaged fewer than 3.7 shots on target per match in recent games
全部概率
赛果
Tijuana45%
平局29%
Pumas UNAM26%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.526%
小于 3.574%
双重机会
Tijuana或平局74%
Pumas UNAM或平局55%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
首发阵容
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Pumas UNAM 5-4-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 11 F. González
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 14 L. Herrera
- 31 R. Morales
替补
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 26 A. Perez
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 9 G. Martínez Ayala
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 15 I. Luna López
- 12 C. Calderón Del Real
- 13 P. Monroy Reyes
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
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