比赛报告 →
Atlante – León1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Atlante
1.27
总 xG
2.63
León
1.36
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Atlante | León |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.66倍) | −0.78 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | +0.52 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.4球) | +0.41 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球) | +0.22 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球) | +0.08 | |
| 状态上升 (1.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | +0.08 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.07 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.07 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍) | +0.04 | |
| L. Calzadilla未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 16%进球产出缺失 (仅83%可用) | ||
| Daniel Arcila替补席 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 61%进球产出缺失 (仅58%可用) |
关键因素
- Form advantage for the visitors: León enters with a three-game winning streak, while Atlante comes off a 0-2 loss
- León's improved attack: The visitors currently score more frequently (1.4 goals per match recently) than their season average (1.1)
- Tactical metrics: León recently averaged 5.6 shots on target, whereas Atlante plays counter-oriented with 37.8% possession
风险
- Daniel Arcila and Jordi Cortizo are missing, leaving only 59% of León's active goal threat available
- Weak away defense: León concedes an extremely high average of 4.11 goals per away match
- Atlante's goal struggle: The home side failed to score in 2 out of 5 matches this season
全部概率
赛果
Atlante33%
平局29%
León37%
进球
大于 1.575%
小于 1.525%
大于 2.549%
小于 2.551%
大于 3.527%
小于 3.573%
双重机会
Atlante或平局63%
León或平局67%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是55%
否45%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
首发阵容
Atlante 5-3-2 · León 4-1-3-2
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 16 J. González
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 3 J. Guevara
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 11 I. Díaz De León
替补
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 33 J. García Bonnet
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 20 G. Adame
- 6 N. Carrera
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 15 S. Fierro González
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 22 S. Santos
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
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