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Liga MX

Puebla - Toluca

09/16/2026, 01:00 AM

0 : 1
预期进球
Puebla
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Toluca
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
PUETOL

Puebla

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.52倍)
-0.72
防守实力 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.57
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.49
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
+0.12
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
+0.12
排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第2位, 相差6位)
-0.08
Eduardo Mustre Torres未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅88%可用)

Toluca

状态上升 (3.5 vs 2.2 赛季平均)
+0.39
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.8球)
+0.18
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.18
排名优势 (第2位 vs 第8位, 相差6位)
+0.04
Helinho替补席 (2球, 2助攻)
Alexis Vega替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.7球 vs 总体2.2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.34
+0.34
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

31%

平局

29%

客胜

40%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

60%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

71%

双方进球

是

55%

否

45%

关键因素
  • Toluca's attacking form: The visitors currently score an average of 3.5 goals, higher than their seasonal average
  • Historical dominance: Toluca won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches with an aggregate score of 11 to 1
  • Possession control: Toluca averaged 60% possession in recent matches compared to Puebla's counter-focused playstyle
风险因素
  • Defensive vulnerability: Puebla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
  • Missing key player: Puebla must play without Eduardo Mustre Torres, leaving them with 88% of their usual starting strength
  • Toluca squad omissions: The visitors are missing Helinho and Alexis Vega from their starting lineup
概述

Puebla host Toluca at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Liga MX match on September 16, 2026, 3:00 AM

Toluca travels as the second-placed team while Puebla sits in 8th place

近期状态

Puebla shows a form of DWWLW with 3 wins

Toluca arrives with a form of WDWWW and is unbeaten in 5 matches

Both teams won their last game

统计数据

Puebla concedes an average of 2.00 goals per game this season

Toluca scores an average of 1.86 goals per match

The visitors concede only 1.02 goals per game on average

历史交锋

Toluca dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 3 wins

Puebla failed to win any of these encounters with one draw

The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw on January 31, 2026

关键球员

Carlos Baltazar recorded 1 goal and 1 assist this season for Puebla

Mathías Tomás also scored once in 4 appearances for the hosts

Federico Viñas leads the visitors with 3 goals this season

门将

Daniel Gutiérrez starts for Puebla with a season rating of 6.9

Luis García guards the goal for Toluca with a rating of 7.38

Toluca kept 13 clean sheets already this season

影响因素

The Estadio Cuauhtémoc features a natural grass pitch

The venue averages 2.8 goals per match

Puebla's home record stands at 20 goals scored and 32 conceded

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