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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Pumas UNAM

09/14/2026, 01:07 AM

3 : 0
预期进球
Guadalajara
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Pumas UNAM
0.9
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
xG 分解
GUAPU

Guadalajara

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.26
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.19
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2.2球)
+0.09
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第10位, 相差6位)
+0.04

Pumas UNAM

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.41倍)
-1.07
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.69
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.16
排名劣势 (第10位 vs 第4位, 相差6位)
-0.06
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.02
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.02
客场表现不佳 (场均0.8球 vs 总体1.7球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.35
+0.35
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

47%

平局

30%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

53%

非平局

70%

双方进球

48%

52%

关键因素
  • Home dominance on artificial turf with a record of 7 wins and only 1 defeat for Guadalajara
  • Significant rest advantage for Guadalajara with 9 days of recovery compared to just 3 days for Pumas UNAM
  • Guadalajara averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
风险因素
  • Higher risk of fatigue for Pumas UNAM with only 3 days since their last match
  • Pumas UNAM are currently scoring more frequently at 2.3 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive vulnerability for the visitors with an average of 1.50 goals conceded per away game
概述

Guadalajara host Pumas UNAM

Match on September 14, 2026, 3:07 AM at Estadio AKRON

Guadalajara are in 4th place with 14 points

Pumas UNAM are in 10th place with 11 points

Mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability

近期状态

Guadalajara show form DWWDW

Pumas UNAM arrive with form WDDLW

Form code explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Guadalajara score an average of 1.75 goals per home match

The home defense concedes only 0.79 goals per game at Estadio AKRON

Pumas UNAM concede an average of 1.50 goals in away games

The model expects 1.44 goals for the hosts and 0.93 goals for the visitors

历史交锋

There are 4 recorded head-to-head matches

Guadalajara dominate with 2 wins and 2 draws

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw

Guadalajara scored a total of 5 goals while Pumas UNAM scored 3

关键球员

Roberto Alvarado stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances

Ricardo Marín contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Robert Morales is a major asset with 1 goal and 3 assists

Juninho has scored 3 goals in 6 matches this season

门将

Raúl Rangel guards Guadalajara's goal with a 7.11 average rating

The hosts have achieved 14 clean sheets in total this season

Keylor Navas is in goal for Pumas UNAM with a rating of 6.56

The visitors have kept 12 clean sheets so far

影响因素

The match is played on artificial turf

Guadalajara have an excellent record of 7 wins on artificial turf

Pumas UNAM have not won any matches on artificial turf yet

The average total goals at this venue is 2.4 per game

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