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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - América

09/13/2026, 03:15 AM

4 : 3
预期进球
Cruz Azul
1.4
Total xG
2.9
América
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
CAAMÉ

Cruz Azul

防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.22
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.14
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均)
-0.14
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.13
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.27倍)
-0.11
排名劣势 (第8位 vs 第1位, 相差7位)
-0.10
Luka Romero替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

América

防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.28
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.6倍)
+0.26
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.14
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.14
小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.13
排名优势 (第1位 vs 第8位, 相差7位)
+0.05

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

28%

客胜

40%

进球数

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

双重机会

主胜或平局

60%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

72%

双方进球

是

60%

否

40%

关键因素
  • Form gap: While América's recent form is positive with 2.2 goals per match, Cruz Azul's goal production of 1.4 has recently slowed down compared to their season average
  • Offensive power: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.6 shots on target per match, while América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent games
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 40% away win probability for América
风险因素
  • Defensive risk: América concedes an average of 1.41 goals per away match
  • Trend risk: Cruz Azul shows a negative form trend, recently conceding 1.6 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.23
  • Data quality: Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last five matches
概述

Cruz Azul host América at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX clash on September 13, 2026, 5:15 AM

League leaders América travel to eighth-placed Cruz Azul

近期状态

Cruz Azul showing upward trend with two consecutive wins (LLLWW)

América unbeaten in five matches with four wins and one draw (DWWWW)

Away side showing more stable form with four consecutive victories

统计数据

Cruz Azul scoring an average of 1.77 goals per game while conceding 1.09

América defensively stable with 1.16 goals conceded and scoring an average of 1.61

Cruz Azul defensively strong at home with only 0.92 goals conceded per home game

历史交锋

Five head-to-head matches in history

Two wins for Cruz Azul, one win for América and two draws

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw

关键球员

Jeremy Márquez has already scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist this season

Nicolás Ibáñez also contributed 3 goals this season for Cruz Azul

Henry Martin shines for América with 3 goals and 1 assist in 5 games

Not nominated: Luka Romero (1 goal, 2 assists this season)

门将

Kevin Mier has kept 12 clean sheets this season

Rodolfo Cota has kept 11 clean sheets for América

Both goalkeepers anchor the defensive stability of their teams

影响因素

Match played on natural grass at Estadio Banorte

Venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per match

Home advantage supports Cruz Azul with an average of 1.75 goals scored at home

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