Liga MX
Toluca - Atlas
09/12/2026, 11:05 PM
预期进球
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
5%xG 分解
Toluca
Atlas
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
39%
平局
30%
客胜
31%
进球数
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
双重机会
主胜或平局
69%
客胜或平局
61%
非平局
70%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- Toluca are in rising form, recently scoring 2.5 goals per match compared to their season average of 2.1
- Atlas exhibit major weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away match
- Toluca dominated recent matches with an average of 62% possession and registered 5.0 shots on target per game
风险因素
- Édgar Zaldívar and Duk are missing from the squad, leaving Atlas with only 60% of their usual offensive starting strength
- Atlas generated an average of only 3.0 shots on target per match in recent games
- The model predicts a balanced matchup with a home win probability of only 39%
概述
Toluca host Atlas at the Estadio Nemesio Díez
Liga MX match on September 12, 2026, 11:05 PM
Toluca occupy 3rd place with 13 points, Atlas follow in 6th place also with 13 points
A direct duel at eye level in the upper half of the table
近期状态
Toluca show a form of LWDWW with two consecutive wins recently
The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Atlas display a form of LWWLD and drew their last match
The visitors registered 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
统计数据
Toluca score an average of 1.86 goals per game and concede 1.02 goals this season
At home, Toluca score an average of 1.85 goals and concede only 0.85 goals
Atlas score 1.15 goals on average away but concede a high average of 2.46 goals per game
Matches at Estadio Nemesio Díez average 3.6 goals per game
历史交锋
Toluca won 2 of the last 4 head-to-head matches while Atlas won none
Two matches ended in a draw with a goal difference of 8:4 in favor of Toluca
The last encounter on March 15, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw
Toluca are historically dominant in this matchup
关键球员
Helinho shines for Toluca with 2 goals, 2 assists, and an average rating of 7.5
Federico Viñas contributed 2 goals this season with a rating of 7.28
Federico Pereira stabilizes Toluca's defense with a rating of 7.57
Luís André Leite Esteves leads Atlas with 2 goals and a rating of 6.94
Arturo González has 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.13
Manuel Capasso records 1 goal and a rating of 6.97 in defense for Atlas
门将
Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas guards the goal for Toluca, which has kept 13 clean sheets this season
Camilo Vargas plays in goal for Atlas with a solid average rating of 7.03
Atlas kept 10 clean sheets so far this season
影响因素
Toluca benefit from a strong home record conceding only 0.85 goals per game at Estadio Nemesio Díez
The stadium features an average of 3.6 goals per match
The match will be played on natural grass
The mathematical prediction calculates a home win probability of 39%