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Liga MX

Atlas - Pumas UNAM

09/19/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
预期进球
Atlas
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Pumas UNAM
1.1
最可能的比分

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

8%

2:1

8%
xG 分解
ATLPU

Atlas

防守不足 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.29
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.24
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.07
Édgar Zaldívar替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Arturo González替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅77%可用)

Pumas UNAM

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.47倍)
-0.39
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.27
状态下滑 (1 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
-0.21
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.18
客场表现不佳 (场均0.7球 vs 总体1.7球)
全员可用
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

39%

平局

31%

客胜

30%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

70%

客胜或平局

61%

非平局

69%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Atlas scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
  • Critical offensive bottleneck for the visitors: Only 16% of goal-scoring threat is available for Pumas UNAM
  • The mathematical prediction favors Atlas with a 39% home win probability
风险因素
  • Atlas recently averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match
  • The visitors' goal production is halting significantly with only 1.0 goals in recent form compared to their season average of 1.7
  • The mathematical analysis expects a low-scoring game with a 57% probability for Under 2.5 goals
概述

Atlas (9th place, 13 points) host Pumas UNAM (11th place, 11 points) at the Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX match on September 19, 2026, 11:00 PM

A tight midfield duel with only two points difference

近期状态

Atlas shows mixed form with the record WWLDL

Two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent matches

Pumas UNAM arrives with a form curve of DDLWL

One win, two draws, and two losses show inconsistent performances

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Atlas scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.58 goals per match

At home, the defense is more stable, conceding only 1.09 goals on average

Pumas UNAM shows strong offensive power with 1.63 goals per game

The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals in away matches

历史交锋

Even historical record in the last 4 head-to-head matches

One win for Atlas, one victory for Pumas UNAM, and two draws

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on February 8, 2026

关键球员

For the home team, Luís André Leite Esteves (2 goals, 1 assist) and Duk (2 goals, 1 assist) are key

Florián Monzón is also in the starting lineup with 2 goals this season

Not nominated: Édgar Zaldívar (2 goals, 1 assist) and Arturo González (1 goal, 1 assist)

For the visitors, Robert Morales (2 goals, 3 assists) and Juninho (4 goals) are highly influential

Luciano Herrera (1 goal, 1 assist) is also a key factor in attack

门将

Camilo Vargas starts in goal for Atlas and has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Keylor Navas plays for the visitors and has recorded 12 clean sheets in total

影响因素

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Jalisco

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in four out of five matches

Atlas benefited from 7 home clean sheets this season

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