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Liga MX

Monterrey - Cruz Azul

09/20/2026, 01:10 AM

1 : 0
预期进球
Monterrey
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Cruz Azul
1.3
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
xG 分解
MONCA

Monterrey

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍)
-0.30
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.24
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.7 赛季平均)
+0.16
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第4位, 相差8位)
-0.12
防守实力 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.09
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.02
Diego Rossi替补席 (2球, 3助攻)

Cruz Azul

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
+0.52
排名优势 (第4位 vs 第12位, 相差8位)
+0.05
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.3球)
-0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
-0.04
Nicolás Ibáñez替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

36%

平局

30%

客胜

34%

进球数

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

双重机会

主胜或平局

66%

客胜或平局

64%

非平局

70%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Highly balanced model prediction: Home win probability at 36% versus 34% away win with very close expected goals (1.32 to 1.28)
  • Cruz Azul's H2H dominance with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters, outscoring Monterrey 9-1
  • Attacking metrics: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target recently, compared to Cruz Azul's average of 7.0
风险因素
  • Monterrey will have to play without Diego Rossi, who has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season
  • Cruz Azul is missing Nicolás Ibáñez, depriving the attack of 3 seasonal goals
  • Inconsistent season performance for Monterrey with 3 defeats already in 7 league matches
概述

Monterrey (12th place, 10 points) host Cruz Azul (4th place, 15 points) at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Liga MX match on September 20, 2026, 3:10 AM

A clash between the mid-table and the top teams

近期状态

Monterrey shows a form of WWLLD in recent matches

Most recently, they recorded a 0-0 home draw against Tigres UANL

Cruz Azul arrives with a form of LLWWW and three consecutive wins

In their last game, the visitors celebrated a 4-3 home win against América

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Monterrey averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game this season

At home, their defense is more stable with only 1.10 goals conceded per match

Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.77 goals and concedes just 1.09 per game

Away from home, Cruz Azul averages 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 20 of Monterrey's 38 matches

历史交锋

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in this period

Cruz Azul dominates the record with 3 wins and 1 draw

Monterrey is yet to secure a victory in this matchup

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Cruz Azul

The overall goal difference is 1-9 in favor of Cruz Azul

关键球员

Lucas Ocampos stands out for Monterrey with 5 goals and 2 assists, holding a 7.99 rating

Hugo Cuypers contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances

Orbelín Pineda strengthens the midfield with 1 goal and 1 assist

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela shines with 2 goals and 4 assists in 8 matches

Carlos Rodríguez has already provided 5 assists with a rating of 7.23

Jeremy Márquez has scored 3 goals this season for the visitors

门将

Esteban Andrada guards the goal for Monterrey with an average rating of 7.13

For Cruz Azul, Kevin Mier played 7 matches, achieving a rating of 6.85

Over the season, Monterrey kept 10 clean sheets while Cruz Azul achieved 12 clean sheets

影响因素

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Stadium statistics show high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at this arena

Monterrey averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded at home this season

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