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Liga MX

León - Juárez

09/28/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 1
预期进球
León
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Juárez
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
xG 分解
LEÓJUÁ

León

小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.91
排名优势 (第7位 vs 第18位, 相差11位)
+0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
+0.08
状态上升 (1.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均)
+0.08
Daniel Arcila未进大名单 (4球, 0助攻)
40%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用)
主场表现强势 (场均1.5球 vs 总体1.1球)

Juárez

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.41倍)
-0.78
防守不足 (场均失1.9球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
+0.57
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.42
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.17
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
-0.17
排名劣势 (第18位 vs 第7位, 相差11位)
-0.11
José Luis Rodríguez未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
16%进球产出缺失 (仅51%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.5球 vs 总体1.4球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.39
+0.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

63%

平局

23%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

37%

非平局

77%

双方进球

是

53%

否

47%

关键因素
  • Clear form advantage for León, currently scoring 1.4 goals per match while Juárez's scoring stalls at 0.8
  • Win probability of 63% for the home team according to the mathematical model
  • Juárez arrives as the bottom-placed team with only one win in their last 5 matches
风险因素
  • Juárez is severely weakened as José Luis Rodríguez (1 goal, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 51% of regular goal threat available
  • León's defense concedes a season average of 1.85 goals per game
  • Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away match
概述

León (7th place, 14 points) host Juárez (18th place, 3 points) at the Estadio León

Liga MX match on September 28, 2026, 3:00 AM

Matchup between the upper mid-table and the bottom-placed team

近期状态

Form of León: WDLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Form of Juárez: LLLLW

León recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Juárez suffered 4 losses in their last 5 games and won only once

统计数据

León scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.85 goals this season

In home games, León scored 26 goals in 25 matches (average 1.04)

Juárez averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.74 goals conceded per game

Juárez scored 24 goals and conceded 36 goals in 16 away matches

历史交锋

4 head-to-head matches recorded

León leads with 3 wins compared to 1 victory for Juárez

Goal difference stands at 7:5 in favor of León

The last encounter ended in a 3:1 victory for León

关键球员

Díber Cambindo is León's top threat with 3 goals this season and a 7.3 rating

Jordi Cortizo contributed 2 season goals with a rating of 7.31

For Juárez, Óscar Estupiñán stands out with 5 goals this season and 4 goals in his last 5 matches

门将

For Juárez, Sebastián Jurado starts in goal, holding a season rating of 7.11

Jurado showed strong recent form with a 7.50 rating over his last 5 matches

León's lineup features Irving Martínez in goal

影响因素

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio León

The stadium averages 3 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 40%

León scored 26 goals and conceded 26 goals in 25 home games this season

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