Liga MX
Cruz Azul - Toluca
09/26/2026, 10:50 PM
预期进球
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%xG 分解
Cruz Azul
Toluca
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
40%
平局
27%
客胜
33%
进球数
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
双重机会
主胜或平局
67%
客胜或平局
60%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
62%
否
38%
关键因素
- Model prediction: Cruz Azul enter as slight favorites with a 40% home win probability
- Sidelined power for Toluca: Key starters Federico Viñas (4G), Jesús Gallardo (1G), Everardo del Villar (1G), and Jesús Angulo (1G) are missing from the lineup
- Offensive threat: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
风险因素
- Cruz Azul's goal scoring drop: The offense averaged 1.6 goals recently compared to their 1.9 season average
- Toluca's scoring surge: The visitors scored 2.8 goals on average recently, exceeding their 2.2 season average
- Resilient away defense: Toluca conceded an average of only 1.31 goals in their away fixtures this season
概述
Cruz Azul (5th place, 15 points) host Toluca (1st place, 19 points)
Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 11:50 PM at Estadio Banorte
Top-clash between the league leaders and the fifth-placed team
The mathematical model predicts a tight match with a slight edge for the home side
近期状态
Cruz Azul enter with form LWWWL following a recent defeat against Monterrey
Toluca travel with form WWWWL after a narrow loss to Santos Laguna
The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games
The visitors secured 4 wins and 1 loss during the same period
统计数据
Cruz Azul average 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.09 goals conceded this season
Toluca boast a highly productive attack with an average of 1.86 goals scored per match
At home Cruz Azul score 1.75 goals on average and concede just 0.92
Toluca concede an average of 1.31 goals in their away fixtures
历史交锋
In the last 4 head-to-head encounters Cruz Azul won once and 3 ended in a draw
The most recent meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 7, 2026
The overall goals stand at 5-4 in favor of Cruz Azul
Historically Cruz Azul hold a slight upper hand in this matchup
关键球员
José Paradela shines in midfield with 2 goals and 4 assists, holding a 7.41 rating
Carlos Rodríguez dictates the play with 5 assists and a stable rating of 7.16
Gabriel Fernández contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the ongoing campaign
Alexis Vega stands out for the visitors with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.53 rating
Helinho remains a constant threat with 2 goals and 2 assists this season
Paulinho is highly efficient scoring 2 goals in just 3 appearances
门将
Andrés Gudiño is in goal for Cruz Azul, having made 1 season appearance so far
Luis García guards the net for Toluca with 5 season appearances to his name
Cruz Azul have recorded 12 clean sheets in total this season
Toluca kept a clean sheet 13 times during the current campaign
影响因素
The match takes place at Estadio Banorte on a grass pitch
Venue stats suggest high-scoring fixtures with an average of 4.4 goals per match
The over 2.5 goals rate at this stadium stands at a high 80%
Both teams scored in 60% of the fixtures played at Estadio Banorte