Liga MX
Necaxa - América
09/28/2026, 03:10 AM
预期进球
1.1
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%xG 分解
Necaxa
América
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
25%
平局
28%
客胜
47%
进球数
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
双重机会
主胜或平局
53%
客胜或平局
75%
非平局
72%
双方进球
是
56%
否
44%
关键因素
- Form divergence: América averaged 2.4 goals per match recently which is higher than its season average, while Necaxa's goal production stagnates at 0.8 goals
- Tactical dominance: América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's 3.4 shots on target
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win chance of only 25% compared to a 48% away win probability for América
风险因素
- Offensive weakness for Necaxa: The home team averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Weakened squad for América: Brian Rodríguez and Raphael Veiga are missing from the lineup, leaving only 75% of the usual active goals share available
概述
Necaxa hosts América at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
Liga MX match on September 28, 2026, 3:10 AM
Clash between 17th place with 8 points and 3rd place with 17 points
Clear favorites role for the visitors from América
近期状态
Necaxa is winless in 5 matches with a form of DLDLL
Most recently they suffered a 1:3 defeat against Atlético San Luis
América shows a stronger form of WWWLD
The visitors recently secured a 2:2 draw against Guadalajara
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
统计数据
Necaxa scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per match
América averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game
The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets so far this season
Necaxa managed only 4 clean sheets in 34 league games
历史交锋
Balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in 4 matches
Goal difference stands at 5:6 from Necaxa's perspective
In the last encounter on January 31, 2026 América won 2:0
Two of the four meetings ended in a draw
关键球员
Julián Carranza has scored 5 goals this season with an average rating of 7.02
Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías contributes 1 goal and 1 assist this campaign
Henry Martin has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists for América
Miguel Borja has scored 3 goals in only 2 season appearances
Érick Sánchez stabilizes playmaking with 1 assist and a 7.09 rating
门将
Luis Jiménez starts in goal for Necaxa with a season rating of 6.97
Rodolfo Cota guards the net for América with a rating of 7.25
América shows significantly more defensive stability with 11 clean sheets
Necaxa has recorded a total of 4 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes
The stadium averages 2.8 total goals per match
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at the Estadio Victoria
Necaxa concedes an average of 1.00 goals per game at home