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Liga MX

Necaxa - América

09/28/2026, 03:10 AM

2 : 4
预期进球
Necaxa
1.1
Total xG
2.8
América
1.6
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
NECAMÉ

Necaxa

小样本 (5场) - 均值回归
+0.31
防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.25
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第3位, 相差14位)
-0.18
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.15
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
-0.15

América

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.7倍)
+0.34
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.19
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
+0.19
防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.4球)
-0.18
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
-0.18
排名优势 (第3位 vs 第17位, 相差14位)
+0.11
Brian Rodríguez未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Raphael Veiga替补席 (1球, 2助攻)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.39
+0.39
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

25%

平局

28%

客胜

47%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

53%

客胜或平局

75%

非平局

72%

双方进球

是

56%

否

44%

关键因素
  • Form divergence: América averaged 2.4 goals per match recently which is higher than its season average, while Necaxa's goal production stagnates at 0.8 goals
  • Tactical dominance: América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's 3.4 shots on target
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win chance of only 25% compared to a 48% away win probability for América
风险因素
  • Offensive weakness for Necaxa: The home team averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Weakened squad for América: Brian Rodríguez and Raphael Veiga are missing from the lineup, leaving only 75% of the usual active goals share available
概述

Necaxa hosts América at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on September 28, 2026, 3:10 AM

Clash between 17th place with 8 points and 3rd place with 17 points

Clear favorites role for the visitors from América

近期状态

Necaxa is winless in 5 matches with a form of DLDLL

Most recently they suffered a 1:3 defeat against Atlético San Luis

América shows a stronger form of WWWLD

The visitors recently secured a 2:2 draw against Guadalajara

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Necaxa scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per match

América averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game

The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets so far this season

Necaxa managed only 4 clean sheets in 34 league games

历史交锋

Balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in 4 matches

Goal difference stands at 5:6 from Necaxa's perspective

In the last encounter on January 31, 2026 América won 2:0

Two of the four meetings ended in a draw

关键球员

Julián Carranza has scored 5 goals this season with an average rating of 7.02

Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías contributes 1 goal and 1 assist this campaign

Henry Martin has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists for América

Miguel Borja has scored 3 goals in only 2 season appearances

Érick Sánchez stabilizes playmaking with 1 assist and a 7.09 rating

门将

Luis Jiménez starts in goal for Necaxa with a season rating of 6.97

Rodolfo Cota guards the net for América with a rating of 7.25

América shows significantly more defensive stability with 11 clean sheets

Necaxa has recorded a total of 4 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

The stadium averages 2.8 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at the Estadio Victoria

Necaxa concedes an average of 1.00 goals per game at home

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