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Liga MX

Atlante - Monterrey

09/26/2026, 01:00 AM

4 : 2
预期进球
Atlante
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Monterrey
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
xG 分解
ATLMON

Atlante

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.62倍)
-0.57
小样本 (4场) - 均值回归
+0.32
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.12
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1 赛季平均)
-0.12
全员可用

Monterrey

小样本 (3场) - 均值回归
-0.04
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.03
Lucas Ocampos替补席 (5球, 2助攻)
Diego Rossi替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Orbelín Pineda未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻)
46%进球产出缺失 (仅63%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.8球)
+0.33
+0.33
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

32%

平局

29%

客胜

39%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

双重机会

主胜或平局

61%

客胜或平局

68%

非平局

71%

双方进球

是

56%

否

44%

关键因素
  • Monterrey averaged 6.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Monterrey scores more frequently currently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
  • The mathematical model predicts an away win probability of 39%
风险因素
  • Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi, and Orbelín Pineda are missing, with only 63% of the goal threat available
  • Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
概述

Atlante (14th place, 8 points) host Monterrey (10th place, 13 points) at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 1:00 AM

Monterrey enters as slight favorites with a 39% win probability according to the model

近期状态

Atlante's form is LDDLD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses recently

Monterrey's form is WLLDW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Atlante's goal production is stalling, averaging 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.0

统计数据

Atlante scored 8 goals and conceded 13 in 9 games

Monterrey scored 61 goals and conceded 58 in 38 games

The visitors concede an average of 2.06 goals in away games

Atlante conceded an average of 2.5 goals in their home games so far

关键球员

Martín Sarrafiore has 2 goals in 6 games with a 7.09 rating

Jhojan Julio recorded 1 goal and 3 assists with a 7.04 rating

L. Calzadilla contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 8 games

Jesús Corona stands out with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.20 rating

Hugo Cuypers scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 7 appearances

Óliver Torres averages a 7.37 rating over 8 games

门将

Óscar Jiménez played 9 games with a 7.16 rating and kept 1 clean sheet

Esteban Andrada has 2 appearances with a 7.53 rating and his team kept 10 clean sheets this season

影响因素

The match is played on grass at Estadio Banorte

Stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 games both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

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