比赛报告 →
Puebla – León1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Puebla
1.14
总 xG
2.48
León
1.35
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.44倍) | −0.94 | |
| 小样本 (4场) - 均值回归 | +0.53 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.4球) | −0.22 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.4 vs 1.1 赛季平均) | −0.22 | |
| 小样本 (5场) - 均值回归 | +0.08 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | +0.07 | |
| 状态上升 (1.4 vs 1.2 赛季平均) | +0.07 | |
| Ignacio Maestro Puch替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Carlos Baltazar替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 31%进球产出缺失 (仅75%可用) | ||
| Daniel Arcila替补席 (4球, 0助攻) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo替补席 (2球, 0助攻) | ||
| 62%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用) |
关键因素
- Form advantage León: The visitors travel with positive momentum (DLWDW), while Puebla have struggled recently (LWLDL)
- Tactical edge: León averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Puebla's average of only 3.4
- Historical edge: León won the last direct encounter 1-0 away and are slight favorites with a 40% win probability
风险
- Severe away weakness: León concede a massive average of 4.11 goals per away match this season
- Offensive slump: Puebla averaged only 0.4 goals in recent games, significantly below their season average of 1.1
- Key absences: León are weakened offensively without the non-nominated Daniel Arcila (4 goals) and Jordi Cortizo (2 goals)
全部概率
赛果
Puebla30%
平局30%
León40%
进球
大于 1.573%
小于 1.527%
大于 2.545%
小于 2.555%
大于 3.524%
小于 3.576%
双重机会
Puebla或平局60%
León或平局70%
非平局70%
双方均进球
是52%
否48%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
首发阵容
Puebla 4-2-3-1 · León 4-1-4-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
León
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 18 E. Guerra
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
替补
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 23 O. García
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 33 A. Villegas
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