比赛报告 →
Pachuca – Necaxa3 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Pachuca
1.57
总 xG
3.09
Necaxa
1.51
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 小样本 (4场) - 均值回归 | −0.17 | |
| 小样本 (4场) - 均值回归 | −0.11 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.09 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | −0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.05 | |
| Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 11%进球产出缺失 (仅84%可用) | ||
| 主场表现强势 (场均1.8球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- Historical dominance: Pachuca won all 4 previous head-to-head matches against Necaxa
- Away defensive weakness: Necaxa concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
- Tactical edge: Pachuca averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's 3.8
风险
- Pachuca face a long gap between matches with 14 days since their last competitive game
- Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava is missing from the lineup, leaving 84% active goal share
全部概率
赛果
Pachuca38%
平局27%
Necaxa35%
进球
大于 1.583%
小于 1.517%
大于 2.560%
小于 2.540%
大于 3.537%
小于 3.563%
双重机会
Pachuca或平局65%
Necaxa或平局62%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是63%
否37%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Necaxa 4-1-4-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 12 S. Santos
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 9 J. Carranza
替补
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 206 T. Hernández
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 181 J. Orantes
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