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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Leeds United

04/22/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
AFC Bournemouth
2.4
Total xG
3.7
Leeds United
1.4
最可能的比分

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

5%

3:0

5%
xG 分解
ABLU

AFC Bournemouth

防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.32
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.2球)
-0.19
排名优势 (第9位 vs 第15位, 相差6位)
+0.07
Rayan替补席 (2球, 2助攻)

Leeds United

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.38
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.55倍)
+0.30
状态上升 (2.3 vs 1.6 赛季平均)
+0.23
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第15位 vs 第9位, 相差6位)
-0.09
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.4球)
-0.04
Lukas Nmecha替补席 (6球, 1助攻)
Anton Stach未进大名单 (4球, 3助攻)
Joe Rodon替补席 (2球, 0助攻)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

58%

平局

21%

客胜

20%

进球数

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

双重机会

主胜或平局

80%

客胜或平局

42%

非平局

79%

双方进球

69%

31%

关键因素
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors a home win for AFC Bournemouth with a 58% probability and predicts 2.36 expected home goals
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Leeds United shows significant defensive vulnerability in away matches, conceding an average of 2.23 goals per away game
  • Offensive Strength: Both teams have shown strong attacking form recently, with AFC Bournemouth averaging 2.0 goals and Leeds United 2.33 goals and an average of 5.4 shots on target in recent games
风险因素
  • Short Recovery Time: Both AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Lower Shots on Target: AFC Bournemouth's average of 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games indicates fewer direct scoring opportunities
  • Away Defensive: Leeds United concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game
概述

AFC Bournemouth (9th place, 48 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 39 points) at the Vitality Stadium. This Premier League fixture takes place on April 22, 2026, 8:00 PM. AFC Bournemouth aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while Leeds United seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone

近期状态

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

AFC Bournemouth's recent form is DDDWW. They have secured 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games. Their last result was a win

Leeds United also shows strong recent form with DDDWW. They recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, with their most recent result being a win

Both teams are currently on an unbeaten run of 5 games

统计数据

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score an average of 1.53 goals and concede 1.13 goals

Leeds United averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game this season. In away matches, they score an average of 1.31 goals but concede 2.23 goals

The Vitality Stadium has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in its last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games (80%), while 2 out of 5 games (40%) had over 2.5 goals

历史交锋

Historically, these two teams have met only once in direct duels. That match, played on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Both teams scored 2 goals each in this single encounter

关键球员

For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi has scored 10 goals this season and has 2 goals in his last 5 games. Marcus Tavernier contributed 6 goals and 4 assists this season, showing a rising form trend. Alex Scott, with 3 goals and 1 assist, is also in rising form

On Leeds United's side, Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads with 11 goals and 1 assist this season. Noah Okafor has 7 goals and 1 assist, displaying a strong rising form trend with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games. Brenden Aaronson has provided 4 goals and 5 assists this season, with 2 assists in his last 4 games

门将

AFC Bournemouth's goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic has achieved 9 clean sheets this season

For Leeds United, Karl Darlow has recorded 2 clean sheets in 13 away appearances this season

影响因素

AFC Bournemouth benefits from playing at home, scoring an average of 1.53 goals and conceding 1.13 goals in home matches. In contrast, Leeds United's away defense concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game. The Vitality Stadium typically sees 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches. The pitch surface is grass

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