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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Crystal Palace

05/03/2026, 01:00 PM

3 : 0
预期进球
AFC Bournemouth
1.5
Total xG
2.9
Crystal Palace
1.4
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
ABCP

AFC Bournemouth

最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
-0.07
排名优势 (第8位 vs 第14位, 相差6位)
+0.04
Ryan Christie替补席 (2球, 0助攻)

Crystal Palace

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.48倍)
+0.34
排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第8位, 相差6位)
-0.09
防守实力 (场均失1.3球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)
+0.04
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.03
Jean-Philippe Mateta替补席 (10球, 0助攻)
Ismaïla Sarr替补席 (7球, 1助攻)
Adam Wharton替补席 (0球, 5助攻)
Tyrick Mitchell替补席 (1球, 2助攻)
45%进球产出缺失 (仅62%可用)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

40%

平局

27%

客胜

33%

进球数

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

双重机会

主胜或平局

67%

客胜或平局

60%

非平局

73%

双方进球

61%

39%

关键因素
  • Critical Squad Impact: Crystal Palace are missing key players, with only 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
  • Strong Home Form: AFC Bournemouth is unbeaten in their last 5 games and shows a rising form trend
  • Mathematical Prediction: The analysis indicates a home win with approximately 40% probability
风险因素
  • Limited Recovery: Crystal Palace has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Significant Goal Threat Gap: Crystal Palace has only 63% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Jean-Philippe Mateta, Ismaïla Sarr, Adam Wharton, Tyrick Mitchell
  • High BTTS Probability: The model predicts a 61% chance of both teams scoring
概述

AFC Bournemouth (8th place, 49 points) hosts Crystal Palace (14th place, 43 points) at the Vitality Stadium. The Premier League match takes place on May 3, 2026, 3:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, with Bournemouth having a better starting position.

近期状态

AFC Bournemouth shows good form across all competitions with "DDWWD" (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches. Most recently, Bournemouth drew 2-2 with Leeds United and won 2-1 away against Newcastle United. Crystal Palace recorded a form of "WLDLW" (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) across all competitions. Crystal Palace's away form is inconsistent, with a 3-1 win against Shakhtar Donetsk and a 1-3 loss against Liverpool.

统计数据

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.56 goals per home game and concedes 1.19 goals. Crystal Palace averages 1.11 goals per away game and also concedes 1.11 goals. This season, Bournemouth scored in 23 matches where both teams scored, while Crystal Palace did so in 17 matches. Bournemouth had 20 matches with over 2.5 goals, Palace had 16. The Vitality Stadium has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In 5 direct encounters, AFC Bournemouth has 2 wins, Crystal Palace has 0 wins, and there have been 3 draws. AFC Bournemouth scored 6 goals, while Crystal Palace scored 3 goals. The last match ended in a 3-3 draw on October 18, 2025. The home team has recently dominated head-to-head matches.

关键球员

For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (11 season goals) and Marcus Tavernier (6 season goals, 4 assists) are important attacking players. Alex Scott (3 season goals, 1 assist) showed improved form in the last five games with an average rating of 7.47. For Crystal Palace, Daniel Muñoz (4 season goals, 2 assists) is in good form with a last five-game rating of 7.10. Maxence Lacroix (1 season goal, 2 assists) and Jefferson Lerma (2 assists) also contribute to the team's performance.

门将

Djordje Petrovic, the goalkeeper for AFC Bournemouth, made 34 season appearances and kept 9 clean sheets. Dean Henderson, Crystal Palace's goalkeeper, played in 32 season matches and achieved 12 clean sheets.

影响因素

The Vitality Stadium's grass surface will host this match. Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 4 out of 5 games at Vitality Stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games.

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