Premier League
Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur
05/03/2026, 06:00 PM
预期进球
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
6%3:1
6%xG 分解
Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
55%
平局
26%
客胜
19%
进球数
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
双重机会
主胜或平局
81%
客胜或平局
45%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
54%
否
46%
关键因素
- Pipeline Probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Aston Villa with 55%
- Form Trend: Aston Villa shows a positive offensive development (1.8 recent goals vs. 1.6 season average), while Tottenham has a negative trend (1.2 recent goals vs. 1.5 season average)
- Head-to-Head: Aston Villa has achieved 4 wins in the last 5 matches against Tottenham Hotspur, demonstrating historical dominance
风险因素
- Aston Villa is playing with only 57% of their usual starting XI's goal threat
- Aston Villa had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Tottenham Hotspur is in a relegation spot (18th place) with 34 points
概述
Aston Villa (5th place, 58 points) host Tottenham Hotspur (18th place, 34 points) at Villa Park
Premier League match on May 3, 2026, 7:00 PM
Aston Villa is fighting for a European spot, while Tottenham Hotspur is in a relegation battle
近期状态
Aston Villa's form in the last five games (all competitions): DWLL
This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The team has suffered two consecutive losses recently
Tottenham Hotspur's form in the last five games (all competitions): WLLDW
This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Tottenham won their last game after two losses
统计数据
Aston Villa scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game
At home, they score 1.35 goals and concede 0.9 goals per home game
Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.26 goals per game and concedes 1.56 goals per game
Away from home, Tottenham scores 1.28 goals and concedes 1.28 goals per away game
Aston Villa kept 9 clean sheets, while Tottenham Hotspur kept 8 clean sheets
At Villa Park, the last 5 games averaged 4.0 goals per match
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
历史交锋
In the 5 previous head-to-head Premier League matches, Aston Villa has achieved 4 wins
Tottenham Hotspur could only win 1 game, with no draws
Aston Villa scored a total of 9 goals, while Tottenham Hotspur scored 7 goals
The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended with a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa
Aston Villa has been more dominant in recent matchups
关键球员
Aston Villa's Morgan Rogers has shown stable form in the last 5 games with 2 goals and 1 assist, averaging a rating of 7.09
Matty Cash (3 goals, 2 assists this season) shows a declining form trend with a rating of 6.69 in his last 5 games
Youri Tielemans (4 assists this season) maintains stable form with a rating of 7.02 in his last 5 games
Tottenham Hotspur's Richarlison (9 goals, 5 assists this season) is in stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games, with a rating of 6.88
Pedro Porro (1 goal, 2 assists this season) shows a rising form trend with an impressive rating of 7.78 in his last 4 games
João Palhinha (4 goals, 2 assists this season) scored 1 goal in his last 4 games and has a stable rating of 6.74
门将
Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa started in 29 season games and kept 9 clean sheets
He shows a rising form trend with a rating of 7.19 in his last 4 appearances
Antonín Kinský of Tottenham Hotspur played 3 season games and kept 8 clean sheets
His form is stable with a rating of 6.64 in his last 3 appearances
影响因素
Aston Villa has scored an average of 1.35 goals in home games and conceded 0.9 goals
The mathematical analysis predicts 1.80 expected goals for Aston Villa
The history at Villa Park shows an average of 4.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 40% of games at Villa Park, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals