Premier League
Manchester United - Liverpool
05/03/2026, 02:30 PM
预期进球
1.6
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Manchester United
Liverpool
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
46%
平局
28%
客胜
27%
进球数
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
双重机会
主胜或平局
73%
客胜或平局
54%
非平局
73%
双方进球
是
58%
否
42%
关键因素
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Manchester United with a 46% win probability
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Manchester United's home performance (1.74 goals/game) meets Liverpool's vulnerable away defense (1.73 goals conceded/game)
- Form Trend: Manchester United shows stable form, while Liverpool's recent goal production has been negative
风险因素
- Liverpool are missing Mohamed Salah and Alexander Isak, leaving only 89% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
- Liverpool's offense has shown a negative form trend in goal production recently
- Manchester United concedes an average of 1.35 goals per game over the season
概述
Manchester United (3rd place, 61 points) host Liverpool (4th place, 58 points) at Old Trafford
Premier League match on May 3, 2026, 3:30 PM
The Red Devils aim to consolidate their Champions League spot, while the Reds look to close the gap
近期状态
Manchester United's form across all competitions is WDLWW
This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Liverpool's form across all competitions is LWLWW
This represents 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
Both teams have recorded two consecutive wins recently
统计数据
Manchester United averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per home game
Liverpool averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per away game
Overall this season, Manchester United averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per match
Liverpool averages 1.68 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match
Manchester United kept 6 clean sheets this season, compared to Liverpool's 10
Both teams scored in 25 of Manchester United's matches and 22 of Liverpool's matches
Old Trafford, the venue, sees an average of 3.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches at Old Trafford, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%
历史交锋
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester United secured 2 wins, Liverpool 1 win, and there were 2 draws
The goal difference in these encounters is 10:11 in favor of Liverpool
The last meeting on October 19, 2025, ended in a 2:1 home victory for Manchester United
Manchester United has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes
关键球员
Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United's midfielder, has scored 8 goals and provided 19 assists this season
In his last 5 games, he contributed 5 assists with an average rating of 7.75
Benjamin Sesko, forward, has 10 season goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
Casemiro, midfielder, contributed 9 goals and 2 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 matches
Florian Wirtz of Liverpool, midfielder, has 5 goals and 3 assists this season
In his last 5 games, he managed 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.10
Cody Gakpo, forward, has 6 season goals and 5 assists, with 2 assists in his last 5 games
Virgil van Dijk, defender, has scored 4 season goals, including 1 goal in his last 5 appearances
门将
Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens shows a rising form with an improvement of 0.31 in his average rating in recent games
Senne Lammens has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Liverpool's goalkeeper Freddie Woodman showed stable form
Liverpool's team achieved a total of 10 clean sheets this season
影响因素
The match will take place at Old Trafford on grass
The Old Trafford venue records an average of 3.0 goals per game, with an 80% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 rate
Manchester United's home strength is evident with 1.74 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded per home game