Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa
08/23/2026, 01:00 PM
预期进球
1.3
3.6
2.3
1:2
9%1:3
7%2:2
6%2:1
5%0:3
5%xG 分解
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
20%
平局
22%
客胜
58%
进球数
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
49%
Under 3.5
51%
双重机会
主胜或平局
42%
客胜或平局
80%
非平局
78%
双方进球
是
67%
否
33%
关键因素
- Critical offensive drop: Aston Villa plays without Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers, leaving only 53% of their goal threat available
- Form gap: Aston Villa shows a positive trend in recent matches, whereas Brighton is on a negative trend
- Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a 58% win probability for Aston Villa with 2.29 expected goals
风险因素
- Fatigue factor: Brighton plays with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Brighton absences: Danny Welbeck (13 goals) and Yankuba Minteh are missing from the starting lineup
- Away defensive weakness: Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals in away matches
概述
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa on August 23, 2026, at 2:00 PM
Match at The American Express Community Stadium
Aston Villa enters as the favorite with a 58% predicted win probability
The visitors aim to maintain their strong momentum
近期状态
Brighton's form is struggling: LWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Most recent match was a 0-0 draw against Tromsø
Aston Villa is in excellent form: WDWWW
Last match was a 2-1 win against Manchester City
Away side with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 outings
统计数据
Brighton averages 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded this season
Aston Villa averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded
Villa concedes an average of 1.69 goals in away matches
Brighton concedes just 0.91 goals per game at home
历史交锋
4 head-to-head matches recorded
Aston Villa dominant with 3 wins and 1 draw
Last match ended 1-0 in favor of Aston Villa on February 11, 2026
Brighton scored 5 goals while Aston Villa scored 10 in these matchups
关键球员
Jack Hinshelwood scored twice in his last 4 matches for Brighton
Emiliano Buendía is in rising form for Aston Villa with 2 goals and 2 assists
John McGinn has 1 goal in his last 5 appearances for Aston Villa
门将
Bart Verbruggen in goal for Brighton with 10 clean sheets this season
Marco Bizot starts in goal for Aston Villa
Aston Villa recorded 9 clean sheets overall this season
影响因素
Game played on grass at The American Express Community Stadium
Stadium average of 2.6 goals per game recently
4 out of the last 5 home games saw over 2.5 goals