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Premier League

Newcastle United - Liverpool

08/23/2026, 03:30 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Newcastle United
1.4
Total xG
3.7
Liverpool
2.4
最可能的比分

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

6%

0:3

5%

2:1

5%
xG 分解
NULIV

Newcastle United

防守不足 (场均失1.6球 vs 联赛平均2球)
-0.37
排名劣势 (第12位 vs 第5位, 相差7位)
-0.22
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球)
-0.13
状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均)
-0.13
Bruno Guimarães未进大名单 (9球, 5助攻)
Nick Woltemade替补席 (8球, 3助攻)
Jacob Ramsey替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Jacob Murphy替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Dan Burn未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
Joe Willock替补席 (0球, 2助攻)
Sandro Tonali未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
34%进球产出缺失 (仅59%可用)

Liverpool

进攻实力 (联赛平均的3.61倍)
+2.67
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均0.3球)
+1.05
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第12位, 相差7位)
+0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
-0.02
Alexis Mac Allister替补席 (2球, 4助攻)
Curtis Jones未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体1.9球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

20%

平局

21%

客胜

59%

进球数

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

双重机会

主胜或平局

41%

客胜或平局

80%

非平局

79%

双方进球

68%

32%

关键因素
  • Mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Liverpool with a 59% probability
  • Liverpool dominated previous encounters with three victories in four matches and a 12:6 goal difference
  • Liverpool recently scored consistently with around 1.8 goals per match and averaged 4.8 shots on target
风险因素
  • Bruno Guimarães, Nick Woltemade, Jacob Ramsey, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Joe Willock, and Sandro Tonali are missing from Newcastle's squad, leaving only 60% of their typical goal threat available
  • Liverpool displays defensive weaknesses on the road, conceding an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • H. Ekitike is unavailable for Liverpool's attack due to an Achilles tendon rupture
概述

Newcastle United hosts Liverpool at St. James' Park

Premier League clash on August 23, 2026, 4:30 PM

Both teams start the new season level on points

The visitors enter the match as clear favorites

近期状态

Newcastle displays mixed form with a form string of LWDWL

The home side recorded two wins and two losses recently

Liverpool travels with a form string of WLDLD

The visitors recorded a draw in their last match

统计数据

Newcastle averages 1.39 goals scored per game

Liverpool boasts a stronger attack with 1.66 goals per match

Newcastle shows defensive stability at home with 1.15 goals conceded on average

Liverpool struggles defensively on the road with 1.94 goals conceded per away game

历史交锋

Liverpool dominates the historical record with three wins in four matches

Newcastle has failed to win any of these direct encounters

The last meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Liverpool

Liverpool scored a total of twelve goals across these fixtures

关键球员

Cody Gakpo has been outstanding with five goals in his last five matches

Alexander Isak contributed one goal and three assists recently

Yoane Wissa is Newcastle's key threat with three goals in his last four games

门将

Lukas Hornicek is starting in goal for Newcastle

Alisson guards the net for Liverpool with a season rating of 6.81

Liverpool kept ten clean sheets this season compared to Newcastle's eight

影响因素

The home advantage at St. James' Park supports Newcastle's defense with 1.15 conceded goals on average

Venue statistics indicate a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.2 goals per match

The game will be played on natural grass

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