Premier League2026/08/30 13:00

Leeds United – Brentford1 : 1

模型为何这样判断

Leeds United

1.94

总 xG

3.28

Brentford

1.33

我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球

模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。

因素	Leeds United	Brentford
高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)	+0.43	+0.43
防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.2球)	+0.22
进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.31倍)		+0.16
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.2球)	−0.08
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)		+0.04
Ao Tanaka替补席 (2球, 1助攻)
Dango Ouattara未进大名单 (7球, 3助攻)
Mathias Jensen未进大名单 (3球, 1助攻)
Yegor Yarmolyuk未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅87%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.1球 vs 总体1.7球)

关键因素

Tactical setup: Leeds averaged 3.6 shots on target with 45.6% possession in recent matches
Strong away attack: Brentford scores consistently with around 1.7 goals per game and recently averaged 4.2 shots on target
Home defense: Leeds conceded an average of only 0.95 goals per game at home last season

风险

Defensive vulnerability on the road: Brentford conceded an average of 2.07 goals per away game last season
Struggling attack: Leeds United's goal production is currently at only 1.2 goals on average compared to their season average of 1.5

全部概率

赛果

Leeds United50%

平局25%

Brentford25%

进球

大于 1.585%

小于 1.515%

大于 2.564%

小于 2.536%

大于 3.541%

小于 3.559%

双重机会

Leeds United或平局75%

Brentford或平局50%

非平局75%

双方均进球

是64%

否36%

最可能的比分

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

1:2

2:2

首发阵容

Leeds United 3-4-2-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1

Leeds United

1 J. Trafford
6 J. Rodon
15 J. Bijol
5 T. Muharemovic
2 J. Bogle
4 E. Ampadu
18 A. Stach
24 J. Justin
11 B. Aaronson
19 N. Okafor
9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Brentford

1 C. Kelleher
33 M. Kayode
20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
22 N. Collins
23 K. Lewis-Potter
18 M. Sangare
27 V. Janelt
19 J. Anthony
24 M. Damsgaard
7 K. Schade
9 Thiago

替补

30 N. Elvedi
10 H. Wilson
3 G. Gudmundsson
21 A. Cairns
29 D. Gnonto
8 S. Longstaff
22 A. Tanaka
7 D. James
14 L. Nmecha

2 A. Hickey
11 Dango Ouattara
14 F. Carvalho
3 R. Henry
12 H. Valdimarsson
6 Y. Yarmoliuk
25 E. Diouf
13 C. Wilson
44 J. Schuster

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