比赛报告 →
AFC Bournemouth – Everton1 : 1
模型为何这样判断
AFC Bournemouth
1.71
总 xG
2.76
Everton
1.05
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | AFC Bournemouth | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| 排名劣势 (第13位 vs 第6位, 相差7位) | −0.17 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.11 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | −0.11 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | +0.08 | |
| 状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均) | +0.08 | |
| 排名优势 (第6位 vs 第13位, 相差7位) | +0.06 | |
| Eli Kroupi未进大名单 (13球, 0助攻) | ||
| Marcos Senesi未进大名单 (0球, 5助攻) | ||
| Tyler Adams替补席 (2球, 2助攻) | ||
| 29%进球产出缺失 (仅76%可用) | ||
| Beto替补席 (9球, 1助攻) | ||
| Michael Keane替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| Jake O'Brien替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Tim Iroegbunam替补席 (0球, 2助攻) |
关键因素
- Historical dominance: AFC Bournemouth won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Everton
- Home strength vs away weakness: Bournemouth concede only 1.05 goals at home while Everton average 1.35 goals conceded away
- Prediction advantage: The model calculates a home win probability of 52%
风险
- Form divergence: Bournemouth lost their last match while Everton secured a victory
- Limited data on weather conditions
- Goal drought: Bournemouth's goal production has stalled recently, averaging 1.4 goals compared to the season average of 1.77
全部概率
赛果
AFC Bournemouth51%
平局27%
Everton22%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.552%
小于 2.548%
大于 3.530%
小于 3.570%
双重机会
AFC Bournemouth或平局78%
Everton或平局49%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是55%
否45%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
首发阵容
AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 4 L. Cook
- 8 A. Scott
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 34 M. Röhl
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 10 I. Ndiaye
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
替补
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 18 B. Diakité
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 10 R. Christie
- 12 T. Adams
- 7 D. Brooks
- 29 D. Jebbison
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 5 M. Keane
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 22 B. Johnson
- 30 H. Hackney
准备开始了吗？
创建账户，探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。
创建账户 →