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Premier League

Chelsea - Nottingham Forest

05/04/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 3
预期进球
Chelsea
2.0
Total xG
2.8
Nottingham Forest
0.9
最可能的比分

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
xG 分解
CHENF

Chelsea

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.38倍)
+0.54
防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.12
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球)
-0.11
排名优势 (第9位 vs 第16位, 相差7位)
+0.07
Pedro Neto未进大名单 (5球, 4助攻)
Estêvão未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)

Nottingham Forest

最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均2.4球)
+0.28
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.28
最近5场中3场零封
-0.15
排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第9位, 相差7位)
-0.07
Morgan Gibbs-White替补席 (13球, 3助攻)
Neco Williams替补席 (2球, 3助攻)
Elliot Anderson替补席 (3球, 2助攻)
Omari Hutchinson 替补席 (1球, 4助攻)
Ibrahim Sangaré未进大名单 (2球, 2助攻)
Chris Wood 替补席 (3球, 0助攻)
70%进球产出缺失 (仅37%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均0.9球 vs 总体1.5球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

62%

平局

24%

客胜

14%

进球数

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

双重机会

主胜或平局

86%

客胜或平局

38%

非平局

76%

双方进球

51%

49%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Chelsea with a probability of 62%
  • Nottingham Forest faces a significantly weakened offense; only 37% of usual goal threat is available, without key players like Morgan Gibbs-White and Neco Williams
  • Nottingham Forest, despite personnel issues, shows strong current form with 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 games
风险因素
  • Chelsea shows a negative form trend in goal production; it is currently stagnating (1.6 goals) compared to the season average (2.0 goals)
  • Nottingham Forest had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • At Stamford Bridge, both teams have not scored in any of the last 5 games
概述

Chelsea (9th place, 48 points) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 39 points) at Stamford Bridge. The Premier League match takes place on May 4, 2026, 3:00 PM. Chelsea aims to improve its league position, while Nottingham Forest seeks to widen the gap to the relegation zone.

近期状态

Chelsea shows inconsistent form with a WLLLW record in their last five games (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their last result was a win. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, is in very strong shape with DWWWW in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have won their last four games. While Chelsea recently saw their goal production stall (1.6 goals on average), Nottingham Forest is currently scoring more frequently (2.4 goals on average).

统计数据

Chelsea averages 1.56 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.53 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded. Nottingham Forest averages 1.21 goals scored and also 1.32 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they average 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game. Both teams have kept 9 clean sheets this season. At Stamford Bridge, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 goals, with no both teams to score instances and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.

历史交锋

In the 5 head-to-head matches so far, Chelsea dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Nottingham Forest, and 1 draw. Chelsea scored 8 goals and conceded 4. The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3-0 victory for Chelsea. Chelsea has shown to be the more dominant team in recent direct duels.

关键球员

For Chelsea, forward João Pedro is an important player with 14 season goals and 5 assists, although his form has slightly declined recently. Midfielder Enzo Fernández shows a rising form trend with 8 goals and 3 assists. Cole Palmer has contributed 9 goals and 1 assist so far, but his form is slightly declining. For Nottingham Forest, striker Igor Jesus is in rising form with 5 goals and 4 assists. Taiwo Awoniyi (2 goals, 1 assist) is in stable form. Nicolás Domínguez (1 goal, 1 assist) also shows a stable form trend.

门将

Chelsea's goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, played in 32 season matches and contributed to 9 clean sheets. For Nottingham Forest, Matz Sels made 27 season appearances and also helped his team achieve 9 clean sheets.

影响因素

Stamford Bridge has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Notably, both teams did not score in any of these 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches. Chelsea's average home goals scored is 1.53, while they concede 1.4 goals at home. Nottingham Forest averages 1.21 goals scored away and concedes 1.26 goals per away game.

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