比赛报告 →
Manchester United – Ipswich Town5 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Manchester United
1.55
总 xG
2.45
Ipswich Town
0.90
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Manchester United | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | −1.15 | |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.43倍) | +0.85 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.22倍) | −0.26 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.8 赛季平均) | +0.13 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.1球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | −0.11 | |
| 最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | −0.01 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | +0.00 | |
| Amad Diallo未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻) | ||
| 13%进球产出缺失 (仅90%可用) |
关键因素
- Mathematical analysis forecasts a home win probability of 51%
- Both sides showed high attacking intent recently, averaging 5.4 shots on target per match
- Manchester United retain 91% of their lineup strength despite missing Amad Diallo
风险
- Limited statistical player data available for Ipswich Town in the provided dataset
- Manchester United suffered a 0-2 away defeat against Hull City in their most recent league game
- Ipswich Town possess a highly stable form curve, remaining undefeated in their last five matches (WDDWW)
全部概率
赛果
Manchester United51%
平局29%
Ipswich Town20%
进球
大于 1.572%
小于 1.528%
大于 2.544%
小于 2.556%
大于 3.523%
小于 3.577%
双重机会
Manchester United或平局80%
Ipswich Town或平局49%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是48%
否52%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
2:0
10%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
5:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 23 L. Shaw
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 19 B. Mbeumo
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 9 M. Rashford
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
Ipswich Town
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 24 J. Greaves
- 3 L. Davis
- 23 S. Lukić
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 38 D. Maeda
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
替补
- 12 K. Darlow
- 30 B. Šeško
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 26 A. Heaven
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 31 S. Lacey
- 25 E. Palacios
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 8 S. Egeli
- 4 C. Kipre
- 20 K. McAteer
- 47 J. Clarke
- 28 C. Walton
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