比赛报告 →
Liverpool – Nottingham Forest2 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Liverpool
1.91
总 xG
2.76
Nottingham Forest
0.86
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Liverpool | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| 排名劣势 (第16位 vs 第5位, 相差11位) | −0.24 | |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.19 | |
| 状态下滑 (0.8 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.19 | |
| 排名优势 (第5位 vs 第16位, 相差11位) | +0.10 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球) | −0.08 | |
| Ryan Gravenberch替补席 (5球, 3助攻) | ||
| Rio Ngumoha替补席 (2球, 1助攻) | ||
| Curtis Jones未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Elliot Anderson未进大名单 (4球, 4助攻) | ||
| Omari Hutchinson 未进大名单 (1球, 5助攻) | ||
| Chris Wood 未进大名单 (3球, 0助攻) | ||
| Nicolás Domínguez替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.4球) |
关键因素
- The mathematical model predicts a home win for Liverpool with a probability of 61%
- Liverpool dominated possession recently with an average of 57.4% and managed 5.6 shots on target per match
- Cody Gakpo is in rising form with 4 goals scored in his last 5 appearances
风险
- Nottingham Forest only have 88% of their usual starting lineup strength available due to missing players like Elliot Anderson, Omari Hutchinson, Chris Wood and Nicolás Domínguez
- Liverpool's recent defensive form shows 2.2 goals conceded per game compared to their season average of 1.40
- Both teams are struggling to find wins, showing recent forms of LDLDD and LDLDL
全部概率
赛果
Liverpool61%
平局24%
Nottingham Forest15%
进球
大于 1.578%
小于 1.522%
大于 2.552%
小于 2.548%
大于 3.530%
小于 3.570%
双重机会
Liverpool或平局85%
Nottingham Forest或平局39%
非平局76%
双方均进球
是50%
否50%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
2:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 9 A. Isak
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 21 X. Schlager
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 3 N. Williams
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 11 I. da Cruz
替补
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 53 J. McConnell
- 21 K. Tsimikas
- 25 L. Netz
- 44 Z. Abbott
- 12 J. Furtado
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
- 19 L. Delap
- 2 O. Diomande
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