比赛报告 →
Tottenham Hotspur – Newcastle United0 : 2
模型为何这样判断
Tottenham Hotspur
1.47
总 xG
2.56
Newcastle United
1.09
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Tottenham Hotspur | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.68倍) | −0.77 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均3.2球) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.5 赛季平均) | −0.14 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球) | −0.01 | |
| Richarlison未进大名单 (11球, 5助攻) | ||
| João Palhinha未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻) | ||
| Conor Gallagher替补席 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| Randal Kolo Muani未进大名单 (1球, 1助攻) | ||
| 53%进球产出缺失 (仅47%可用) | ||
| Bruno Guimarães未进大名单 (9球, 5助攻) | ||
| Nick Woltemade替补席 (8球, 3助攻) | ||
| William Osula未进大名单 (7球, 0助攻) | ||
| Jacob Murphy替补席 (3球, 2助攻) | ||
| Dan Burn未进大名单 (1球, 2助攻) | ||
| Sandro Tonali未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻) | ||
| 53%进球产出缺失 (仅53%可用) | ||
| 客场表现不佳 (场均1球 vs 总体1.8球) |
关键因素
- Critical quality loss for Tottenham: Only 47% of the seasonal goal threat is active with key scorers like Richarlison, João Palhinha, and Conor Gallagher missing from the lineup
- Historical dominance of the Magpies: Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last 4 head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of them
- Tottenham's offensive form crisis: Recently, their goal production stalled at an average of just 1.0 goals per match compared to their 1.48 season average
风险
- Significant blow to Newcastle's attack: Only 54% of the regular threat is available with key players like Bruno Guimarães and Nick Woltemade missing
- Severe away weakness for the visitors: Newcastle United concede an average of 2.08 goals per away match this season
- Low threat despite high possession: Tottenham recently averaged only a disappointing 3.4 shots on target per match despite holding 55.2% possession
全部概率
赛果
Tottenham Hotspur44%
平局29%
Newcastle United26%
进球
大于 1.574%
小于 1.526%
大于 2.547%
小于 2.553%
大于 3.525%
小于 3.575%
双重机会
Tottenham Hotspur或平局74%
Newcastle United或平局56%
非平局71%
双方均进球
是53%
否47%
最可能的比分
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:2
最终比分
首发阵容
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 · Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 14 A. Gray
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 16 S. Tonali
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 11 M. Tel
- 22 O. Marmoush
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 3 L. Hall
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 67 L. Miley
- 19 A. Elanga
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 9 Y. Wissa
替补
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 33 B. Davies
- 13 I. Udogie
- 20 M. Kudus
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 19 D. Solanke
- 47 M. Moore
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 5 F. Schär
- 23 J. Murphy
- 14 S. Steur
- 51 L. Shahar
- 24 E. Jaouen
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