比赛报告 →
Chelsea – Brighton & Hove Albion4 : 3
模型为何这样判断
Chelsea
1.27
总 xG
2.95
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.69
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.4倍) | +0.67 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.4球) | −0.15 | |
| 状态下滑 (1.4 vs 1.9 赛季平均) | −0.15 | |
| 最近5场中3场零封 | −0.15 | |
| 状态上升 (2 vs 1.6 赛季平均) | +0.14 | |
| 防守实力 (场均失1.2球 vs 联赛平均1.2球) | +0.05 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.6球) | +0.01 | |
| Enzo Fernández未进大名单 (10球, 4助攻) | ||
| Marc Cucurella未进大名单 (1球, 4助攻) | ||
| Moisés Caicedo替补席 (3球, 1助攻) | ||
| 17%进球产出缺失 (仅81%可用) | ||
| Jack Hinshelwood未进大名单 (4球, 3助攻) | ||
| Yasin Ayari未进大名单 (3球, 3助攻) | ||
| 39%进球产出缺失 (仅64%可用) |
关键因素
- Matchup advantage: Brighton currently score more frequently (2.0 goals) compared to their season average (1.6)
- Tactical dominance: Brighton averaged 6.0 shots on target and 67.2% possession in recent matches
- Historical edge: Brighton won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Chelsea
风险
- Fatigue: Brighton face a quick turnaround with only 3 days since their last match
- Squad impact: Jack Hinshelwood and Yasin Ayari are missing, leaving only 65% of Brighton's goal threat active
- Chelsea averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their recent matches
全部概率
赛果
Chelsea27%
平局27%
Brighton & Hove Albion46%
进球
大于 1.581%
小于 1.519%
大于 2.557%
小于 2.543%
大于 3.534%
小于 3.566%
双重机会
Chelsea或平局54%
Brighton & Hove Albion或平局73%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是60%
否40%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
4:3
最终比分
首发阵容
Chelsea 3-4-2-1 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Chelsea
- 26 D. Martínez
- 3 W. Fofana
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 6 L. Colwill
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 27 M. Gusto
- 45 R. Lavia
- 21 J. Hato
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 9 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 13 P. Groß
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
替补
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 39 M. Penders
- 24 R. James
- 11 J. Bynoe-Gittens
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 23 J. Steele
- 6 J. Hadjam
- 15 I. Osman
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 4 P. Struijk
- 22 A. Cozier-Duberry
- 12 P. Akinpelu
- 20 J. da Costa
- 49 N. Oriola
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