Premier League
Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest
09/12/2026, 02:00 PM
预期进球
2.1
3.0
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%xG 分解
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
联赛
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
66%
平局
22%
客胜
12%
进球数
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
双重机会
主胜或平局
88%
客胜或平局
34%
非平局
78%
双方进球
是
51%
否
49%
关键因素
- Mathematical dominance: The model calculates a 66% probability of a home win for Aston Villa
- Head-to-head record: Aston Villa won the last direct duel clearly 4-0 and holds 3 H2H victories
- Tactical aspect: Aston Villa averaged 3.0 shots on target with 45% possession in recent matches
风险因素
- Critical absence: Igor Jesus is missing for Nottingham Forest, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Attack in a slump: Aston Villa's offensive production is stalling at 1.25 goals per game compared to their 1.69 season average
- Statistical trend: Nottingham Forest remains vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.27 goals per game
概述
Aston Villa (18th place, 1 point) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 2 points) at Villa Park
Premier League match on September 12, 2026, 4:00 PM
Both teams aim to correct their poor start and collect vital points at the bottom of the table
近期状态
Aston Villa showing a form of WLLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in recent matches
Nottingham Forest are still waiting for their first win with a form of LDLDD
The visitors have registered 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
统计数据
Aston Villa averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game this season
Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.34
Aston Villa kept 9 clean sheets, Nottingham Forest also recorded 9
In 20 of 38 games, over 2.5 goals were scored for both teams
历史交锋
5 head-to-head matches in recent history
Aston Villa dominates with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Nottingham Forest and 1 draw
The last match ended in a clear 4-0 home win for Aston Villa on May 7, 2026
关键球员
John McGinn stands out with 5 goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 6.9
Emiliano Buendía scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Morgan Gibbs-White leads the visitors with 15 goals and 4 assists with a strong rating of 7.04
Dan Ndoye has 1 goal and 1 assist this season
门将
Zion Suzuki starts in goal for Aston Villa with a home rating of 6.37
Matz Sels guards Nottingham Forest's goal with an overall rating of 6.80
Both clubs have already completed 9 clean sheets each this season
影响因素
Home advantage at Villa Park with historically 4.2 goals scored per game on average
The historical BTTS rate for matches in this stadium is 60%
The game will be played on natural grass