Premier League
Liverpool - Chelsea
05/09/2026, 11:30 AM
预期进球
1.8
3.2
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%xG 分解
Liverpool
Chelsea
模型概率
比赛结果
主胜
46%
平局
26%
客胜
28%
进球数
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
双重机会
主胜或平局
72%
客胜或平局
54%
非平局
74%
双方进球
是
64%
否
36%
关键因素
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 46% home win probability for Liverpool and a goal difference of 1.80 to 1.37
- Liverpool's form (3 wins, 2 losses in 5 games) is significantly better than Chelsea's (1 win, 4 losses in 5 games)
- Liverpool shows consistent goal production (currently avg. 1.8 goals per game), while Chelsea's offense is stagnating (currently avg. 0.4 goals per game)
风险因素
- Chelsea's goal production is currently declining, with an average of only 0.4 goals per game
- Chelsea registered an average of only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The head-to-head record between the two teams is balanced, with 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 for Chelsea, and 1 draw
概述
Liverpool (4th place, 58 points) host Chelsea (9th place, 48 points) at Anfield
Premier League match on May 9, 2026, 1:30 PM
The Reds are fighting for Champions League spots, while Chelsea are in the midfield of the table
近期状态
Liverpool's current form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WLWWL
In the last five games, Liverpool recorded 3 wins and 2 losses
The most recent match ended in a 2-3 away loss against Manchester United
Chelsea's form across all competitions is LLLWL
Chelsea recorded 1 win and 4 losses in their last five games
Chelsea lost their last game 1-3 at home against Nottingham Forest
统计数据
Liverpool averages 1.69 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded per game this season
At home, the Reds improve to an average of 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded
According to advanced stats, Liverpool scores consistently at ~1.8 goals per game
Chelsea averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per game over the season
Away, the values are 1.58 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game
Chelsea's goal production is currently stagnating at 0.4 goals, while the season average is 2.0
At the venue Anfield, there were an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 games
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games (40%), and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games (40%)
历史交锋
In 5 recent head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 wins for Chelsea, and 1 draw
Liverpool scored 9 goals and Chelsea scored 8 goals in these matches
The last encounter on October 4, 2025, saw Chelsea win 2-1 away
关键球员
For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai (6 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.36 rating), Cody Gakpo (7 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.12 rating), and Ryan Gravenberch (4 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.06 rating) stand out
Ryan Gravenberch's form is declining, with a form trend delta of -0.30
Not in Liverpool's lineup: Mohamed Salah (7G/6A), Florian Wirtz (5G/3A), Alexander Isak (3G/1A)
For Chelsea, João Pedro (15 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.14 rating), Enzo Fernández (8 goals, 3 assists, avg. 7.25 rating), and Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.99 rating) are important players
The form of João Pedro and Cole Palmer is declining, with form trend deltas of -0.42 and -0.60 respectively
Enzo Fernández shows a rising form trend with a delta of 0.36
Not in Chelsea's lineup: Pedro Neto (5G/4A), Trevoh Chalobah (3G/0A)
门将
Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has kept 0 clean sheets in 8 season appearances
Chelsea's goalkeeper Filip Jørgensen has kept 0 clean sheets in 4 season appearances
Liverpool has recorded a total of 10 clean sheets in 35 games this season
Chelsea has recorded 9 clean sheets in 35 games
影响因素
Liverpool benefits from home advantage at Anfield
The Reds score an average of 1.68 goals and concede 0.95 goals at home
Anfield stadium has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 40% of the last 5 games at Anfield, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%