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Premier League

Nottingham Forest - Coventry City

09/19/2026, 04:30 PM

0 : 1
预期进球
Nottingham Forest
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Coventry City
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
xG 分解
NFCC

Nottingham Forest

防守实力 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
-0.15
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
-0.14
Igor Jesus替补席 (6球, 4助攻)
23%进球产出缺失 (仅71%可用)

Coventry City

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.59倍)
-0.69
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球)
-0.39
状态下滑 (0.8 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
-0.39
小样本 (0场) - 均值回归
+0.35
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均2.9球)
+0.40
+0.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

43%

平局

30%

客胜

27%

进球数

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

双重机会

主胜或平局

73%

客胜或平局

57%

非平局

70%

双方进球

50%

50%

关键因素
  • Clear favorites: Nottingham Forest hold a 43% win probability compared to 27% for the visitors
  • Coventry's crisis: The visitors have lost all 4 league matches with a 0:10 goal difference
  • Home advantage: Forest are expected to score 1.37 goals against a struggling defense
风险因素
  • Absence of Igor Jesus reduces Forest's offensive threat with only 71% of standard goals share available
  • Coventry's desperate hunt for their first goal of the season makes them unpredictable
  • Limited data in the dataset regarding Coventry City's player stats
概述

Nottingham Forest host Coventry City at The City Ground

Premier League clash on September 19, 2026, 5:30 PM

Nottingham Forest sit 11th with 5 points

Coventry City are bottom of the table in 20th place with 0 points

The home side enters as the clear favorites

近期状态

Nottingham Forest show form of DLDDW with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss

Coventry City have a form of WLLLL with 1 win and 4 consecutive defeats

The visitors are still searching for their first league points of the season

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Nottingham Forest average 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 goals conceded this season

Forest concede an average of 1.44 goals per game at home

Coventry City have scored 0 goals while conceding 10 in the league so far

The mathematical model predicts 1.37 goals for Forest and 1.04 for Coventry

关键球员

Morgan Gibbs-White is Forest's key midfielder with 15 goals and 4 assists

Neco Williams solidifies the defense with a season rating of 6.93

Dan Ndoye has scored 2 goals in his last 5 appearances

Detailed player form statistics are not available for Coventry City

门将

Matz Sels starts in goal for Nottingham Forest with a rating of 6.80

Carl Rushworth is in goal for Coventry City

Sels has recorded 9 clean sheets in his season statistics

影响因素

The City Ground features a grass pitch which favors the home team

The venue average stands at 2.6 goals per game

The model estimates a 50% probability for both teams to score

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