比赛报告 →
Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest3 : 1
模型为何这样判断
Crystal Palace
1.52
总 xG
3.07
Nottingham Forest
1.55
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.37倍) | +0.96 | |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.71 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均2.9球) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| 小样本 (2场) - 均值回归 | −0.33 | |
| 状态上升 (2.5 vs 1.5 赛季平均) | +0.30 | |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.75倍) | +0.27 | |
| 最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均0.8球) | −0.19 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.15 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.6球) | −0.14 | |
| 状态下滑 (1 vs 1.4 赛季平均) | −0.13 | |
| 防守不足 (场均失1.4球 vs 联赛平均1.3球) | +0.06 | |
| 全员可用 | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Balanced model signal: The prediction model calculates a very tight contest with a 36% home win and 37% away win probability
- High goal trend at Selhurst Park: Crystal Palace's last 5 home games all produced over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.2 goals per match
- Limited active goal threat: Both squads must cover missing goal output, with active players providing just 12% and 8% of total season goals
风险
- Low attacking threat: Nottingham Forest averaged just 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Defensive absences: Crystal Palace are missing T. Tomiyasu, C. Riad, and suspended A. Disasi
全部概率
赛果
Crystal Palace36%
平局27%
Nottingham Forest37%
进球
大于 1.583%
小于 1.517%
大于 2.559%
小于 2.541%
大于 3.537%
小于 3.563%
双重机会
Crystal Palace或平局63%
Nottingham Forest或平局64%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是63%
否37%
最可能的比分
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
3:1
最终比分
首发阵容
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 · Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
Crystal Palace
- 44 W. Benítez
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 26 C. Richards
- 6 J. Canvot
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 20 A. Wharton
- 23 Q. Timber
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
- 2 O. Diomande
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 21 X. Schlager
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 3 N. Williams
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 19 L. Delap
替补
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 11 D. McNeil
- 29 E. Guessand
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 7 I. Sarr
- 19 W. Hughes
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 31 R. Matthews
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 8 N. Domínguez
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 22 R. Yates
- 9 C. Wood
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