🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

Premier League

Burnley - Aston Villa

05/10/2026, 01:00 PM

2 : 2
预期进球
Burnley
1.0
Total xG
2.7
Aston Villa
1.7
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
xG 分解
BURAV

Burnley

防守不足 (场均失2.1球 vs 联赛平均1.5球)
+0.59
进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.79倍)
-0.39
最近5场中5场仅0-1球 (场均0.6球)
-0.17
状态下滑 (0.6 vs 1.2 赛季平均)
-0.17
排名劣势 (第19位 vs 第5位, 相差14位)
-0.17
Quilindschy Hartman替补席 (0球, 5助攻)

Aston Villa

排名优势 (第5位 vs 第19位, 相差14位)
+0.11
最近5场中3场仅0-1球 (场均1.8球)
+0.04
Emiliano Buendía替补席 (6球, 2助攻)
Lucas Digne替补席 (0球, 6助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.3球 vs 总体1.6球)
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

21%

平局

27%

客胜

52%

进球数

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

双重机会

主胜或平局

48%

客胜或平局

79%

非平局

73%

双方进球

54%

46%

关键因素
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 52% win probability for Aston Villa
  • Burnley is in very poor form with five consecutive losses and a declining goal production of 0.6 goals per game recently compared to 1.2 on average this season
  • Aston Villa dominated the direct encounters in recent years, winning all three matches
风险因素
  • Aston Villa has only 3 days of rest since their last match
概述

Burnley (19th place, 20 points) host Aston Villa (5th place, 58 points) at Turf Moor in a Premier League match. The game takes place on May 10, 2026, at 3:00 PM. Aston Villa are fighting for a European spot, while Burnley are battling against relegation.

近期状态

Burnley are in poor form, having lost all of their last five matches (LLLLL). In these five games, they scored a total of 3 goals and conceded 13. Aston Villa show mixed form with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches (WLLLW). Their last game was a 4-0 win against Nottingham Forest. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

统计数据

Burnley have scored an average of 1.00 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.03 goals per game. At home, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game. Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.37 goals per game and conceded 1.26 goals per game. Away from home, they have scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1.60 goals. At Turf Moor, there has been an average of 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches.

历史交锋

In the last three head-to-head encounters between Burnley and Aston Villa, Burnley failed to secure a win, while Aston Villa won all three matches. The goal difference stands at 4:8 in favor of Aston Villa. The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa. Aston Villa has been dominant in recent encounters.

关键球员

For Burnley, Zian Flemming with 9 season goals and 1 assist, Jaidon Anthony with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Lesley Ugochukwu with 3 goals and 1 assist could be crucial. On Aston Villa's side, Ollie Watkins with 11 goals and 2 assists, Morgan Rogers with 9 goals and 5 assists, and John McGinn with 4 goals and 3 assists stand out.

门将

Burnley's goalkeeper Max Weiß has kept 4 clean sheets this season. On the other hand, Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa has recorded 9 clean sheets this season.

影响因素

Turf Moor has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Burnley have scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.73 goals at home. Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1.60 goals away from home.

准备开始了吗?

创建账户,探索数据驱动的足球分析。随时可取消。