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Eredivisie

Ajax - Willem II

09/15/2026, 06:00 PM

5 : 1
预期进球
Ajax
2.2
Total xG
3.7
Willem II
1.5
最可能的比分

2:1

9%

2:2

7%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
xG 分解
AJAWI

Ajax

进攻实力 (联赛平均的1.37倍)
+1.36
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
-0.95
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3.8球)
+0.52
状态上升 (3.8 vs 2.1 赛季平均)
+0.52
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均1.6球)
-0.15
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第17位, 相差12位)
+0.12
Tolu Arokodare替补席 (2球, 1助攻)

Willem II

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.55倍)
-1.59
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+1.07
防守不足 (场均失2.8球 vs 联赛平均2.3球)
+0.54
排名劣势 (第17位 vs 第5位, 相差12位)
-0.21
最近5场中4场仅0-1球 (场均1球)
全员可用

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.9球)
+1.40
+1.40
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

51%

平局

23%

客胜

26%

进球数

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

双重机会

主胜或平局

74%

客胜或平局

49%

非平局

77%

双方进球

70%

30%

关键因素
  • Ajax offensive superiority: The hosts are currently scoring 3.8 goals on average, higher than their season average of 2.1
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 9.8 shots on target with 59% possession in recent matches
  • Vulnerable defense of Willem II: The visitors concede an average of 2.8 goals per match and are yet to record a clean sheet this season
风险因素
  • Tight schedule for Ajax with only 3 days of rest since their last competitive match
  • Willem II averaged only 2.4 shots on target in recent matches, indicating limited offensive threat
  • Away weakness for the visitors with an average of 2.5 goals conceded per away match
概述

Ajax host Willem II in the Eredivisie

Match at the Johan Cruijff Arena on September 15, 2026, 8:00 PM

Ajax sit in 5th place (10 points), Willem II are 17th (2 points)

The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 51%

近期状态

Ajax display stable form with the form string WWWLW

They recorded 4 wins and 1 defeat recently

Willem II struggle with the form string LLDLD

The visitors are winless in five matches with 3 defeats

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Ajax average 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match

Willem II concede 2.8 goals on average while scoring only 1.0 goal

The visitors have not recorded a single clean sheet this season

Ajax have a home goal record of 35 goals scored and 18 conceded

历史交锋

Historical records show 2 wins for Ajax in 2 matches

The goal difference stands at 3:1 in favor of the hosts

The last direct encounter ended in a 2:1 win for Ajax on April 13, 2025

关键球员

Steven Berghuis leads the Ajax attack with a 7.53 rating, 1 goal and 3 assists

Davy Klaassen contributed 4 goals in his last 5 appearances

Julian Brandt stabilizes the midfield with 2 goals this season

For the visitors, Devin Haen is the main threat with 3 goals

Calvin Twigt provides stability in midfield with a rating of 7.22

Nathan Tjoe-A-On has recorded 2 assists so far

门将

Maarten Paes is in goal for Ajax

Maxime Delanghe guards the net for Willem II with a 6.61 rating

Ajax kept 11 clean sheets overall

Willem II are yet to record a clean sheet this season

影响因素

The match is played on grass at the Johan Cruijff Arena

The venue stats show a high average of 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in all historical matches at this stadium

Ajax had 3 days of rest compared to 4 days for Willem II

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