比赛报告 →
SC Cambuur – FC Twente1 : 4
模型为何这样判断
SC Cambuur
1.29
总 xG
2.95
FC Twente
1.66
我们的模型在开赛前给出的预期进球
模型的计算方式：每个因素都会为一支球队增加或减少预期进球。
| 因素 | SC Cambuur | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 防守实力 (场均失4球 vs 联赛平均1.7球) | +2.28 | |
| 高进球联赛 (场均4球) | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| 进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.76倍) | −0.52 | |
| 小样本 (0场) - 均值回归 | +0.09 | |
| 最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2球) | +0.01 | |
| Daan Rots替补席 (9球, 4助攻) | ||
| 47%进球产出缺失 (仅65%可用) | ||
| 全员可用 |
关键因素
- Quality and form gap: FC Twente average 1.95 goals per season, while SC Cambuur have lost all 3 league games, conceding an average of 4.0 goals
- Tactical dominance: FC Twente averaged a strong 8.0 shots on target in recent matches
- High-scoring game expected: Mathematical analysis predicts a 60% probability of BTTS, favoring Twente with 1.66 expected goals
风险
- Daan Rots is missing for FC Twente, leaving only 66% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Tight schedule for FC Twente with only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Limited data availability regarding the player performance statistics of SC Cambuur
全部概率
赛果
SC Cambuur28%
平局27%
FC Twente45%
进球
大于 1.581%
小于 1.519%
大于 2.556%
小于 2.544%
大于 3.534%
小于 3.566%
双重机会
SC Cambuur或平局55%
FC Twente或平局72%
非平局73%
双方均进球
是60%
否40%
最可能的比分
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
1:4
最终比分
首发阵容
SC Cambuur 5-4-1 · FC Twente 4-2-3-1
SC Cambuur
- 1 T. Jansen
- 23 L. Jetten
- 6 J. Amofa
- 4 I. Baouf
- 14 B. van Duijl
- 28 M. Costarelli
- 29 I. Henstra
- 3 J. Berkhout
- 8 N. Souren
- 10 R. el Arguioui
- 7 S. Bouhoudane
FC Twente
- 16 J. Drommel
- 28 B. van Rooij
- 3 R. Pröpper
- 43 R. Nijstad
- 29 A. Adelgaard
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 42 D. Weidmann
- 27 S. Ørjasæter
- 19 Y. Taha El Idrissi
- 7 M. Pjaca
- 9 W. Weghorst
替补
- 2 D. Bouah
- 33 M. Maertens
- 9 S. Vink
- 11 I. Hamache
- 13 N. Binder
- 15 F. Kvam
- 16 R. Mulders
- 17 E. Apkakou
- 21 J. Meijster
- 24 M. Kalisvaart
- 27 W. Kooistra
- 48 D. Westerhof
- 22 R. Pasveer
- 1 L. Unnerstall
- 11 D. Rots
- 12 G. Martinho Peixoto
- 20 T. van den Belt
- 25 L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
- 38 M. Bruns
- 26 B. Nagel
- 24 K. Kurowski
- 17 F. Thorvaldsen
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