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Eredivisie

Excelsior - Sparta Rotterdam

08/29/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
预期进球
Excelsior
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Sparta Rotterdam
1.0
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
xG 分解
EXCSR

Excelsior

最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均2.4球)
+0.31
状态上升 (2.4 vs 1.4 赛季平均)
+0.31
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
-0.02
Noah Naujoks未进大名单 (10球, 1助攻)
Gyan de Regt未进大名单 (3球, 7助攻)
Derensili Sanches Fernandes未进大名单 (6球, 3助攻)
Arthur Zagré未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
71%进球产出缺失 (仅35%可用)

Sparta Rotterdam

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.46倍)
-1.52
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.6球)
+0.10
状态上升 (1.6 vs 1.3 赛季平均)
+0.10
Ayoni Santos替补席 (1球, 1助攻)
12%进球产出缺失 (仅82%可用)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.8球)
+1.30
+1.30
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

48%

平局

29%

客胜

23%

进球数

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

双重机会

主胜或平局

77%

客胜或平局

52%

非平局

71%

双方进球

是

52%

否

48%

关键因素
  • Severe squad shortage for Excelsior: Only 36% of active goal threat available without Noah Naujoks, Gyan de Regt, Derensili Sanches Fernandes, and Arthur Zagré
  • Tactical advantage: Excelsior averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.0 for the visitors
  • Model prediction: The mathematical probability favors a home win at 48%
风险因素
  • Away defensive issues: Sparta Rotterdam concede an average of 2.19 goals per away match
  • Home struggles on artificial turf: Excelsior recorded only 2 wins from 10 games on this surface
概述

Excelsior host Sparta Rotterdam at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 29, 2026, 4:30 PM

Mid-table clash between the 8th and 10th-placed teams

近期状态

Excelsior show form WDWWL with a loss in their last match

Sparta Rotterdam present form LLLWD and recorded a draw last time out

The hosts secured 3 wins and 1 draw in recent games

统计数据

Excelsior average 1.26 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per season

Sparta Rotterdam average 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 goals conceded

The visitors struggle defensively away from home with 2.19 goals conceded on average

历史交锋

Balanced head-to-head record with 1 win for each side

Goal difference of 3:3 from the last 2 direct encounters

The last match ended in a 3-2 away victory for Excelsior

关键球员

Irakli Yegoian stands out for Excelsior with 5 goals and 2 assists

Casper Widell provides defensive stability and has scored 1 goal this season

Shunsuke Mito is Sparta's key threat with 7 goals and 3 assists

Milan Zonneveld has contributed 4 goals so far

门将

Stijn van Gassel played 32 matches with an average rating of 7.12

Filip Bednarek heads into the game without any season appearances

影响因素

Both teams play their matches on artificial turf

Excelsior's home record on this surface stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses

The historical average at this venue stands at 3.0 goals per game

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