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Eredivisie

Telstar - Ajax

08/30/2026, 02:45 PM

0 : 4
预期进球
Telstar
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Ajax
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
xG 分解
TELAJA

Telstar

排名劣势 (第14位 vs 第5位, 相差9位)
-0.12
最近5场中3场打进2+球 (场均1.8球)
+0.09
状态上升 (1.8 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.09
防守实力 (场均失1.7球 vs 联赛平均1.8球)
-0.07
Sem van Duijn未进大名单 (5球, 2助攻)
Danny Bakker未进大名单 (4球, 2助攻)
Tyrese Noslin未进大名单 (2球, 3助攻)
Soufiane Hetli替补席 (3球, 1助攻)
Guus Offerhaus未进大名单 (1球, 3助攻)
25%进球产出缺失 (仅70%可用)

Ajax

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-1.15
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均2.2球)
-0.74
最近5场中5场打进2+球 (场均3球)
+0.31
状态上升 (3 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.31
排名优势 (第5位 vs 第14位, 相差9位)
+0.06
Youri Baas替补席 (4球, 1助攻)
Youri Regeer未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均4球)
+1.50
+1.50
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

28%

平局

29%

客胜

43%

进球数

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

双重机会

主胜或平局

57%

客胜或平局

72%

非平局

71%

双方进球

55%

45%

关键因素
  • Offensive upswing: Telstar currently scores more often (1.8) than their season average, while Ajax averaged 3.0 goals recently
  • Tactical dominance: Ajax averaged 8.0 shots on target in recent matches with 62.4% possession
  • Weakened squad: Telstar is missing 5 key players, leaving only 70% of their typical starting lineup threat available
风险因素
  • Fatigue factor: Ajax enters the match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Artificial turf resistance: Ajax remains unbeaten on artificial turf with 4 wins and 5 draws
  • Low offensive output: Telstar averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
概述

Telstar hosts Ajax at the BUKO Stadion

Eredivisie match on August 30, 2026, 4:45 PM

Telstar is currently in 13th place with 3 points, while Ajax sits in 9th place with 4 points

The mathematical prediction favors Ajax with a 43% probability

The expected goals are calculated at 1.16 for Telstar and 1.47 for Ajax

近期状态

Telstar holds a form of DWWWL, coming off a recent loss

The home side recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

Ajax enters with a form of WDDWW after a victory in their last match

The visitors remain undefeated in their last five matches with 3 wins and 2 draws

统计数据

Telstar averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded last season

Ajax averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded per match

Telstar scores 1.41 goals per home game on average

Ajax concedes 1.41 goals per away game on average

历史交锋

Two head-to-head encounters are on record

Ajax won both matches with a total goal difference of 5:2

The last meeting on January 11, 2026, ended in a 3:2 away victory for Ajax

关键球员

Jeff Hardeveld anchors the midfield for Telstar with 6 goals and 7 assists

Patrick Brouwer contributed 7 goals and 6 assists this season

Davy Klaassen is in rising form for Ajax with 8 goals and a 7.20 recent rating

Not in lineup for Telstar: Sem van Duijn, Danny Bakker, Tyrese Noslin, Soufiane Hetli, Guus Offerhaus

Not in lineup for Ajax: Youri Baas, Youri Regeer

门将

Ronald Koeman Jr. starts in goal for Telstar with a season rating of 7.27

Marc-André ter Stegen features as the goalkeeper for Ajax

Telstar recorded 5 clean sheets last season, while Ajax kept 11 clean sheets

影响因素

The BUKO Stadion has a high-scoring history with an average of 3.6 goals per game

The match will be played on artificial turf

Telstar has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses on artificial turf

Ajax is undefeated on artificial turf with 4 wins and 5 draws

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