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Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard - Ajax

09/12/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 5
预期进球
Fortuna Sittard
1.3
Total xG
2.8
Ajax
1.5
最可能的比分

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
xG 分解
FSAJA

Fortuna Sittard

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.54倍)
-1.07
小样本 (2场) - 均值回归
+0.67
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均2.2球)
+0.20
状态上升 (2.2 vs 1.5 赛季平均)
+0.20
防守实力 (场均失1.8球 vs 联赛平均1.7球)
+0.18
全员可用

Ajax

进攻不足 (联赛平均的0.7倍)
-0.99
防守实力 (场均失1.5球 vs 联赛平均2.3球)
-0.76
最近5场中4场打进2+球 (场均3.2球)
+0.36
状态上升 (3.2 vs 2 赛季平均)
+0.36
Oscar Gloukh替补席 (6球, 6助攻)
Davy Klaassen替补席 (8球, 2助攻)
Youri Regeer未进大名单 (0球, 2助攻)
48%进球产出缺失 (仅57%可用)
客场表现不佳 (场均1.4球 vs 总体2球)

联赛

高进球联赛 (场均3.9球)
+1.43
+1.43
模型概率

比赛结果

主胜

30%

平局

28%

客胜

42%

进球数

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

双重机会

主胜或平局

58%

客胜或平局

70%

非平局

72%

双方进球

58%

42%

关键因素
  • Limited offensive power for Fortuna Sittard: Only 22% of their seasonal goal production is available in the squad
  • Offensively strong Ajax: The visitors recently averaged 8.4 shots on target per match
  • Historical dominance: Ajax won all four of their last head-to-head matches against Fortuna Sittard
风险因素
  • Significant squad impact for Ajax: Oscar Gloukh, Davy Klaassen and Youri Regeer are missing, leaving only 58% of starting lineup strength available
  • Defensive instability for Fortuna Sittard, conceding an average of 1.85 goals per game this season
  • Fortuna Sittard played very counter-oriented in recent matches, averaging just 32% possession
概述

Fortuna Sittard hosts Ajax at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Eredivisie match on September 12, 2026, 8:00 PM

Home team currently in 6th place with 10 points, Ajax in 8th with 7 points

Mathematical prediction calculates a 42% away win probability and 1.26 to 1.54 expected goals

近期状态

Fortuna Sittard holds a DWLWW form in recent matches

The home side recently celebrated two consecutive wins

Ajax enters with a DWWWL form

The visitors lost their last match 1-3 against PSV

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

统计数据

Fortuna Sittard scores avg. 1.44 goals and concedes avg. 1.85 this season

Home record stands at avg. 1.47 goals scored and avg. 1.53 conceded

Ajax records avg. 1.81 goals scored and avg. 1.17 conceded

In away matches, Ajax scores avg. 1.76 goals and concedes avg. 1.41

The stadium averages 3.2 goals per game

历史交锋

Ajax dominated all 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The goal difference is a clear 14 to 2 in favor of Ajax

Last meeting on February 14, 2026, ended in a 4-1 away victory

关键球员

Mohamed Ihattaren stands out with a 7.31 rating alongside 3 goals and 2 assists

Lequincio Zeefuik contributed 3 goals and 1 assist this season

Steven Berghuis shines with a 7.33 rating, 4 goals and 2 assists

Youri Baas recorded 4 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.13

门将

Mattijs Branderhorst is in goal for Fortuna Sittard, holding a 7.02 rating

Marc-André ter Stegen defends the goal for Ajax

Fortuna Sittard secured 3 clean sheets this season, whereas Ajax recorded 11 clean sheets

影响因素

The home advantage is visible in Fortuna Sittard's home record of 28 goals scored and 29 conceded

Ajax responds with an away record of 30 goals scored and 24 goals conceded

The match will be played on natural grass at the Fortuna Sittard Stadion

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